Prop Finder ?

What you're looking at

Pick a season, position, prop, line, and direction — the table shows every qualifying player's hit rate against that line, computed from actual nflverse box scores. Seasons 2021–2026 are loaded, so you can back-test any line against known history.

★ All Props leaderboard

Choosing ★ All Props in the Prop menu (or ALL as the position) ranks every prop at a standard line — one row per player, prop, and direction, sorted by hit rate. For the current season each player is graded at his own Hard Rock line for this week when Hard Rock has posted one (shown bold with an HRB tag); otherwise his average Hard Rock closing line this season for that prop is used, rounded to the nearest .5 (tagged avg cl); with no closing history either, the prop's standard line is used (tagged std — e.g. Passing Yards 225.5, Receptions 4.5, Anytime TD 0.5), and Has line today hides every row without a posted Hard Rock line. Past seasons always use standard lines. The Under side of 0.5-line props (Interceptions, Anytime TD) is left off the board — low-usage players hit those trivially. Use the Direction menu to restrict the board to Overs or Unders, and Exclude Anytime TD (Filters panel) to drop the Anytime TD rows.

Hit rate definition

Over = share of completed games where the player's stat finished above your line. Under = share below it. A push (stat exactly equal to a whole-number line) counts as a miss for both directions. Only games the player actually appeared in count — a stat line of zero in a game played is a real zero.

Season / Close % / L3 / L5

Close % (seasons 2024+) grades the same games against each game's own Hard Rock closing line instead of today's number, with the record underneath (e.g. 5/5); hover it for his average closing line and ROI at the closing prices. Games Hard Rock didn't price are left out of it. So Season % answers "how often would he have cleared this line" and Close % answers "how often did he actually beat the book".

Season covers all of the player's games in scope. L3 and L5 cover the most recent 3 and 5 (playoffs latest when included); they show — when the player has fewer games than the window.

Line source: Book line vs Custom line

Book line (Hard Rock) — the default for the current season on the seven core markets (passing yards / attempts / completions, rushing yards / attempts, receiving yards / receptions, plus passing TDs) — grades each player against his own current Hard Rock Bet line for his next game, so the hit rates answer "how often has he cleared the number the book is actually posting". A Line (HRB) column shows that line with the over/under prices; players the book has not priced yet show no line with blank rates, and Has line today hides them. Lines come from the Prop Insight cache (refreshed hourly on game days) — no line is fetched live, so a number can lag the book by up to an hour. Custom line is the classic search: one line of your choosing applied to every player. It is the only mode for past seasons, the All Props leaderboard, and props with no sportsbook market (Passing TDs, Interceptions, Anytime TD, kicking).

Historical closing lines

Check Historical closing lines to pool every game since 2024 (the Season selector is ignored) and grade each one against that game's own Hard Rock closing line (taken 5 minutes before kickoff). Hard Rock lines don't exist in the odds archive before 2024. Games where Hard Rock didn't post the player are left out; Games counts the games that had a closing line, and Min Games applies to that count.

Columns: Avg (actual result) vs Avg Close; Close %, L5 %, L10 % and the per-season columns are hit rates against each game's closing line; Today is his current Hard Rock line and Today % is how often those same games would have cleared it; ROI is the return of betting 1 unit on the chosen side at every closing price (pushes return 0; games without a price for that side are skipped). While it's on, Min L3/L5 filter L5/L10, Has line today keeps only players with a line today, and Line source, the line box and Game date are disabled. The Log button lists every game since 2024 with its closing line and price.

Matchup

The Matchup column shows each player's grade from this week's Matchups board (Great, Good, Even, Tough, Bad) and his opponent. It is always the upcoming week — the board switches as soon as the previous week's last game is final. Check one or more grades to show only those players — e.g. Great + Good. QBs, WRs and TEs use their own card; RBs use the Receiving card for receiving yards and receptions and the Rushing card for everything else. Kickers have no matchup, so they drop out while a grade is checked. The grade is always this week's, even when you're browsing a past season or historical lines.

Games

The Games button opens this week's slate as game cards (kickoff in CT, spread / total, records). Click one or more games and press Apply to show only players whose team plays in them — e.g. just the Sunday night game. All games (or the chip's ×) clears it. Hit rates still cover each player's full sample; the game only picks who is listed. It is always the upcoming week, even when browsing a past season or historical lines.

Game date, Not started

Game date binds results to that date's slate: only players whose team plays that day appear, with the matchup and kickoff (CT) shown, and the season switches to the slate's season. Not started then hides games that have already kicked off — useful for live-day betting.

Filters

The top bar holds what you change on every search: the position buttons — they are multi-select: a click adds or removes that position and re-runs the search (e.g. RB + WR + TE for Receiving Yards or Receptions, QB + RB for Rushing Yards or Rush Attempts). The Prop menu lists the props every selected position shares, and your prop is kept when the new set still offers it. A position that shares no prop with the others (K) replaces the selection, and All resets to every position; Prop, Direction, Line source, Line, and the Historical lines switch. Everything else lives behind the Filters button — its badge counts the active ones, and each active filter appears as a chip under the bar; click a chip's × to remove just that filter, or Clear all.

Position gates which props are offered (QBs get passing plus rushing props, RBs/WRs/TEs get rushing/receiving, Ks get kicking). Include playoffs adds postseason games to every window. Home/Away restricts the games the rates are computed over. Min usage filters on the per-game opportunity metric (attempts, carries, targets, touches, or kicks depending on the prop). The three Min % floors drop rows below a Season / L3 / L5 hit rate. Min odds / Max odds keep only rows whose current Hard Rock price for the row's side (over price for Overs, under price for Unders) falls inside that American-odds range — e.g. Min -150 and Max +120. They work wherever rows carry a price: Book line mode, the current-season All Props leaderboard (only rows graded at a posted Hard Rock line have one), and Historical lines (today's price). Rows with no price are hidden while either is set. The Odds column shows that price; click its header to sort.

Anytime TD

Counts rushing + receiving + return touchdowns — passing TDs never count for anytime-TD markets. Line 0.5 = "scores a TD"; 1.5 = "2+ TDs".

Prop Insight popup

Click any row (or its Insight button) to open a popup for that player and prop. The popup always evaluates the player's own current book line; the row's line is used only when no book line exists. It shows the current sportsbook lines with no-vig fair probabilities, a projection (median and mean for the stat, built from the player's recent and season form, the opponent, and the game environment), the model's P(over) / P(under) and its edge versus the no-vig market price, a lean (Over / Under / No edge — "No edge" when the edge is under 3 points or the sample is too thin), and a confidence tag (High / Medium / Low, driven by sample size, projection spread, injury status, and how far the books disagree). A factor checklist lists what pushes each side, with the league average, rank, and sample size next to every value.

Probabilities are only shown for markets whose projections have beaten the no-vig market in a walk-forward backtest; other markets show the projection and factors with the note "model not yet validated for this market". Every rate carries its sample size, and anything the data cannot support reads "insufficient data" rather than a number. Games with a snap share under 50% (injury exits, blowouts) are excluded from the hit rates and chart by default — a toggle in the popup includes them.

All of it uses only games completed before that kickoff. Informational only. Not betting advice.