NFL Week 7
THU · 7:15 PM
NE50.54-2
CHI-34-2
SUN · 8:30 AM
PIT-3.54-2
NO44.52-4
SUN · 12:00 PM
CIN-1.53-2
BAL48.54-2
SUN · 12:00 PM
CLE-1.54-2
TEN37.51-5
SUN · 12:00 PM
IND41.52-4
MIN-6.55-0
SUN · 12:00 PM
MIA39.50-5
NYJ-4.52-4
SUN · 12:00 PM1 Pick
NYG42.53-2-1
HOU-10.52-4
SUN · 12:00 PM2 Picks
SF-36-0
ATL49.52-4
SUN · 12:00 PM
TB44.51-5
CAR-33-2
SUN · 3:05 PM
DEN-4.54-2
ARI43.52-4
SUN · 3:25 PM1 Pick
GB53.54-2
DET-33-2
SUN · 3:25 PM
LA-4.52-4
LV48.53-3
SUN · 7:20 PM
KC42.55-0
SEA-2.53-3
MON · 7:15 PM
DAL-4.52-4
PHI44.52-4
← Game Model / Game Picks

Game Picks

Week 7, 2026 — every game, including no-plays

How Game Picks Work

The model line

Every game gets a model spread, total, and win probability built from three-part team power ratings (opponent-adjusted efficiency, a roster component where every player carries a point value, and a market-implied anchor), team-specific home field, rest/travel/situational spots, weather, and player-level injury deltas.

Edges and tiers

Cover probabilities come from an empirical margin distribution that preserves key-number mass at 3, 6, 7, 10 and 14 — a 1.5-point gap across 3 is worth far more than one from 8.5 to 10. Expected value is computed at the posted price; Lean / Play / Strong tiers are EV thresholds, and units are fractional-Kelly sized with a per-game exposure cap. Pricing is deliberately conservative: bet probabilities are shrunk toward the market, so most games are "no play".

Locking and grading

Picks may update as lines move during the week; at kickoff they lock and never change. After the final they're graded against the result and the closing line — closing line value (CLV) is the primary health metric, especially early in the model's life.

Reading the board

Model vs market lines are from the home team's perspective (negative = favored). ITT = implied team totals. "Best" is the best available price across captured books for the recommended side.

NE @ CHI Thu 10/22 7:15 PM CT published 2026-10-20 16:15 UTC Open
Model: CHI -1.9 Total 48.1 Home WP 56.1% ITT CHI 25.0 / NE 23.1
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread NE +3.0 1.9 3.0 -110 hardrockbet -1.7 no play — -108 pinnacle
total under 51.0 48.1 51.0 -110 hardrockbet 0.0 no play — +102 pinnacle
moneyline CHI -1.9 — -160 hardrockbet -2.8 no play — -155 pinnacle
PIT @ NO Sun 10/25 8:30 AM CT published 2026-10-20 16:15 UTC Open
Model: NO +1.4 Total 44.1 Home WP 44.0% ITT NO 21.3 / PIT 22.8
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread NO +3.0 1.4 3.0 +100 hardrockbet -0.8 no play — +100 hardrockbet
total under 44.5 44.1 44.5 -110 hardrockbet -2.2 no play — -103 pinnacle
moneyline NO 1.4 — +150 hardrockbet -2.1 no play — +157 pinnacle spread is the better expression (-0.8% vs -2.1%)
CIN @ BAL Sun 10/25 12:00 PM CT published 2026-10-20 16:15 UTC Open
Model: BAL -0.3 Total 44.2 Home WP 50.1% ITT BAL 22.2 / CIN 22.0
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread BAL -1.5 -0.3 -1.5 -110 hardrockbet -3.4 no play — -109 pinnacle moneyline is the better expression (-2.7% vs -3.4%)
total under 48.5 44.2 48.5 -110 hardrockbet 1.1 no play — -110 hardrockbet
moneyline BAL -0.3 — -120 hardrockbet -2.7 no play — -120 hardrockbet
CLE @ TEN Sun 10/25 12:00 PM CT published 2026-10-20 16:15 UTC Open
Model: TEN +2.2 Total 37.4 Home WP 41.3% ITT TEN 17.6 / CLE 19.8
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread CLE -2.0 -2.2 -2.0 -110 hardrockbet 1.6 no play — -107 pinnacle
total under 37.0 37.4 37.0 -105 hardrockbet -0.7 no play — -104 pinnacle
moneyline CLE -2.2 — -125 hardrockbet -3.8 no play — -125 pinnacle spread is the better expression (1.6% vs -3.8%)
IND @ MIN Sun 10/25 12:00 PM CT published 2026-10-20 16:15 UTC Open
Model: MIN -6.0 Total 40.9 Home WP 68.8% ITT MIN 23.5 / IND 17.4
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread IND +6.0 6.0 6.0 -110 hardrockbet -2.2 no play — -107 pinnacle
total under 41.5 40.9 41.5 -110 hardrockbet -2.1 no play — -109 pinnacle
moneyline MIN -6.0 — -300 hardrockbet -4.5 no play — -286 pinnacle
MIA @ NYJ Sun 10/25 12:00 PM CT published 2026-10-20 16:15 UTC Open
Model: NYJ -3.3 Total 38.8 Home WP 60.6% ITT NYJ 21.0 / MIA 17.8
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread MIA +4.5 3.3 4.5 -110 hardrockbet 0.6 no play — -108 pinnacle
total under 39.5 38.8 39.5 -110 hardrockbet -2.0 no play — -110 hardrockbet
moneyline NYJ -3.3 — -230 hardrockbet -3.6 no play — -216 pinnacle
NYG @ HOU Sun 10/25 12:00 PM CT published 2026-10-20 16:15 UTC Open
Model: HOU -8.3 Total 43.8 Home WP 75.0% ITT HOU 26.0 / NYG 17.7
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread NYG +10.5 8.3 10.5 -110 hardrockbet 2.6 lean 0.7u -108 pinnacle model/market gap crosses 10
total under 43.0 43.8 43.0 -110 hardrockbet -3.1 no play — -110 hardrockbet
moneyline HOU -8.3 — -525 hardrockbet -4.0 no play — -476 pinnacle
SF @ ATL Sun 10/25 12:00 PM CT published 2026-10-20 16:15 UTC Open
Model: ATL +3.2 Total 41.3 Home WP 38.0% ITT ATL 19.0 / SF 22.3
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread SF -3.0 -3.2 -3.0 +100 hardrockbet 2.6 lean 0.7u +105 pinnacle
total under 50.0 41.3 50.0 -105 hardrockbet 7.3 strong 2.0u -105 hardrockbet
moneyline SF -3.2 — -150 hardrockbet -3.2 no play — -149 pinnacle spread is the better expression (2.6% vs -3.2%)
TB @ CAR Sun 10/25 12:00 PM CT published 2026-10-20 16:15 UTC Open
Model: CAR -4.5 Total 44.2 Home WP 64.5% ITT CAR 24.4 / TB 19.9
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread CAR -3.0 -4.5 -3.0 -105 hardrockbet -2.0 no play — +105 pinnacle
total under 45.0 44.2 45.0 -110 hardrockbet -1.8 no play — -110 hardrockbet
moneyline CAR -4.5 — -160 hardrockbet -2.5 no play — -147 pinnacle spread is the better expression (-2.0% vs -2.5%)
DEN @ ARI Sun 10/25 3:05 PM CT published 2026-10-20 16:15 UTC Open
Model: ARI +3.4 Total 42.7 Home WP 37.5% ITT ARI 19.7 / DEN 23.0
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread ARI +4.5 3.4 4.5 -110 hardrockbet -2.3 no play — -103 pinnacle
total under 43.0 42.7 43.0 -105 hardrockbet -0.1 no play — -105 hardrockbet
moneyline ARI 3.4 — +185 hardrockbet -2.8 no play — +185 hardrockbet spread is the better expression (-2.3% vs -2.8%)
GB @ DET Sun 10/25 3:25 PM CT published 2026-10-20 16:15 UTC Open
Model: DET -4.8 Total 46.6 Home WP 65.3% ITT DET 25.7 / GB 20.9
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread GB +3.5 4.8 3.5 -115 hardrockbet -1.5 no play — +109 pinnacle
total under 53.5 46.6 53.5 -110 hardrockbet 3.3 lean 0.9u -106 pinnacle
moneyline DET -4.8 — -175 hardrockbet -2.3 no play — -175 hardrockbet
LA @ LV Sun 10/25 3:25 PM CT published 2026-10-20 16:15 UTC Open
Model: LV +5.3 Total 45.8 Home WP 31.9% ITT LV 20.3 / LA 25.5
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread LV +4.0 5.3 4.0 -105 hardrockbet -2.0 no play — -105 hardrockbet
total under 48.5 45.8 48.5 -110 hardrockbet -0.3 no play — -106 pinnacle
moneyline LV 5.3 — +175 hardrockbet -3.0 no play — +179 pinnacle spread is the better expression (-2.0% vs -3.0%)
KC @ SEA Sun 10/25 7:20 PM CT published 2026-10-20 16:15 UTC Open
Model: SEA -1.7 Total 41.9 Home WP 55.2% ITT SEA 21.8 / KC 20.1
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread SEA -2.5 -1.7 -2.5 -115 hardrockbet -3.7 no play — -114 pinnacle moneyline is the better expression (-2.2% vs -3.7%)
total under 42.5 41.9 42.5 -110 hardrockbet -2.1 no play — +102 pinnacle
moneyline SEA -1.7 — -145 hardrockbet -2.2 no play — -144 pinnacle
DAL @ PHI Mon 10/26 7:15 PM CT published 2026-10-20 16:15 UTC Open
Model: PHI +0.9 Total 44.6 Home WP 46.0% ITT PHI 21.8 / DAL 22.7
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread PHI +4.0 0.9 4.0 -110 hardrockbet 0.3 no play — -110 hardrockbet model/market gap crosses 3
total under 44.0 44.6 44.0 -105 hardrockbet -0.8 no play — -105 hardrockbet
moneyline PHI 0.9 — +175 hardrockbet -2.1 no play — +175 hardrockbet spread is the better expression (0.3% vs -2.1%)