Game Picks

Week 1, 2026 — every game, including no-plays

How Game Picks Work

The model line

Every game gets a model spread, total, and win probability built from three-part team power ratings (opponent-adjusted efficiency, a roster component where every player carries a point value, and a market-implied anchor), team-specific home field, rest/travel/situational spots, weather, and player-level injury deltas.

Edges and tiers

Cover probabilities come from an empirical margin distribution that preserves key-number mass at 3, 6, 7, 10 and 14 — a 1.5-point gap across 3 is worth far more than one from 8.5 to 10. Expected value is computed at the posted price; Lean / Play / Strong tiers are EV thresholds, and units are fractional-Kelly sized with a per-game exposure cap. Pricing is deliberately conservative: bet probabilities are shrunk toward the market, so most games are "no play".

Locking and grading

Picks may update as lines move during the week; at kickoff they lock and never change. After the final they're graded against the result and the closing line — closing line value (CLV) is the primary health metric, especially early in the model's life.

Reading the board

Model vs market lines are from the home team's perspective (negative = favored). ITT = implied team totals. "Best" is the best available price across captured books for the recommended side.

NE @ SEA Wed 9/9 7:20 PM CT published 2026-08-28 22:08 UTC Open
Model: SEA -3.4 Total 44.1 Home WP 60.9% ITT SEA 23.7 / NE 20.4
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread NE +3.5 3.4 3.5 -105 hardrockbet 4.1 play 1.1u -105 hardrockbet_fl
total under 44.5 44.1 44.5 -110 hardrockbet -2.2 no play — -107 lowvig
moneyline SEA -3.4 — -190 hardrockbet -3.1 no play — -156 marathonbet
SF @ LA Thu 9/10 7:35 PM CT published 2026-08-28 22:08 UTC Open
Model: LA -4.0 Total 44.1 Home WP 63.0% ITT LA 24.0 / SF 20.0
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread SF +4.5 4.0 4.5 -115 hardrockbet -2.4 no play — -103 pinnacle
total under 48.5 44.1 48.5 -110 hardrockbet 1.3 no play — -102 lowvig
moneyline LA -4.0 — -200 hardrockbet -2.5 no play — -167 marathonbet
ATL @ PIT Sun 9/13 12:00 PM CT published 2026-08-28 22:08 UTC Open
Model: PIT -1.3 Total 44.2 Home WP 53.9% ITT PIT 22.7 / ATL 21.5
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread ATL +3.5 1.3 3.5 -120 hardrockbet -0.2 no play — +102 pinnacle model/market gap crosses 3
total under 42.5 44.2 42.5 -110 hardrockbet -4.0 no play — +104 pinnacle
moneyline PIT -1.3 — -175 hardrockbet -3.3 no play — -154 marathonbet
BAL @ IND Sun 9/13 12:00 PM CT published 2026-08-28 22:08 UTC Open
Model: IND -2.0 Total 44.2 Home WP 56.5% ITT IND 23.1 / BAL 21.1
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread IND +3.5 -2.0 3.5 -115 hardrockbet 1.3 no play — +100 coolbet model/market gap crosses 3
total under 47.5 44.2 47.5 -105 hardrockbet 2.7 lean 0.7u -104 williamhill_us
moneyline IND -2.0 — +155 hardrockbet -2.0 no play — +160 unibet_se spread is the better expression (1.3% vs -2.0%)
BUF @ HOU Sun 9/13 12:00 PM CT published 2026-08-28 22:08 UTC Open
Model: HOU -2.6 Total 43.8 Home WP 58.4% ITT HOU 23.2 / BUF 20.6
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread BUF -1.5 2.6 -1.5 +100 hardrockbet 0.3 no play — +102 pinnacle
total under 44.5 43.8 44.5 -110 hardrockbet -1.9 no play — -101 pinnacle
moneyline HOU -2.6 — -105 hardrockbet -4.1 no play — +100 espnbet
CHI @ CAR Sun 9/13 12:00 PM CT published 2026-08-28 22:08 UTC Open
Model: CAR +1.0 Total 44.2 Home WP 45.8% ITT CAR 21.6 / CHI 22.6
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread CAR +2.5 1.0 2.5 +105 hardrockbet -2.4 no play — +105 lowvig
total under 47.5 44.2 47.5 -110 hardrockbet 0.4 no play — -105 draftkings
moneyline CAR 1.0 — +130 hardrockbet -3.1 no play — +140 betanysports spread is the better expression (-2.4% vs -3.1%)
CLE @ JAX Sun 9/13 12:00 PM CT published 2026-08-28 22:08 UTC Open
Model: JAX -7.9 Total 43.9 Home WP 74.1% ITT JAX 25.9 / CLE 18.0
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread CLE +8.5 7.9 8.5 -110 hardrockbet 2.7 lean 0.8u +104 pinnacle
total over 40.5 43.9 40.5 -110 hardrockbet -3.7 no play — +100 espnbet
moneyline JAX -7.9 — -425 hardrockbet -3.7 no play — -360 betanysports
NO @ DET Sun 9/13 12:00 PM CT published 2026-08-28 22:08 UTC Open
Model: DET -7.0 Total 43.9 Home WP 71.6% ITT DET 25.5 / NO 18.5
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread NO +7.5 7.0 7.5 -120 hardrockbet -1.5 no play — +100 fanduel model/market gap crosses 7
total under 50.5 43.9 50.5 -115 hardrockbet 1.0 no play — -107 lowvig
moneyline DET -7.0 — -350 hardrockbet -4.5 no play — -310 draftkings
NYJ @ TEN Sun 9/13 12:00 PM CT published 2026-08-28 22:08 UTC Open
Model: TEN -2.4 Total 44.1 Home WP 57.7% ITT TEN 23.3 / NYJ 20.9
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread TEN -2.5 -2.4 -2.5 -105 hardrockbet 1.6 no play — +100 pinnacle
total over 39.5 44.1 39.5 -110 hardrockbet -2.5 no play — -105 coolbet
moneyline TEN -2.4 — -135 hardrockbet -1.9 no play — -130 draftkings spread is the better expression (1.6% vs -1.9%)
TB @ CIN Sun 9/13 12:00 PM CT published 2026-08-28 22:08 UTC Open
Model: CIN +0.3 Total 44.3 Home WP 48.4% ITT CIN 22.0 / TB 22.3
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread TB +3.5 -0.3 3.5 -105 hardrockbet 7.8 strong 2.1u +104 pinnacle model/market gap crosses 3
total under 50.5 44.3 50.5 -105 hardrockbet 5.2 play 1.4u +100 hardrockbet_oh
moneyline CIN 0.3 — -200 hardrockbet -4.0 no play — -182 marathonbet
ARI @ LAC Sun 9/13 3:25 PM CT published 2026-08-28 22:08 UTC Open
Model: LAC -3.7 Total 44.1 Home WP 62.0% ITT LAC 23.9 / ARI 20.2
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread ARI +10.5 3.7 10.5 -115 hardrockbet 4.8 play 1.4u +100 hardrockbet_oh model/market gap crosses 6, 7, 10
total under 47.5 44.1 47.5 -115 hardrockbet -1.6 no play — -101 pinnacle
moneyline LAC -3.7 — -600 hardrockbet -4.3 no play — -500 betfair_ex_eu
GB @ MIN Sun 9/13 3:25 PM CT published 2026-08-28 22:08 UTC Open
Model: MIN -1.1 Total 44.2 Home WP 53.4% ITT MIN 22.7 / GB 21.5
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread MIN -1.5 -1.1 -1.5 -105 hardrockbet -0.1 no play — +100 onexbet
total under 45.5 44.2 45.5 -110 hardrockbet -1.4 no play — -102 lowvig
moneyline MIN -1.1 — -120 hardrockbet -2.5 no play — -110 unibet_se spread is the better expression (-0.1% vs -2.5%)
MIA @ LV Sun 9/13 3:25 PM CT published 2026-08-28 22:08 UTC Open
Model: LV -1.3 Total 44.2 Home WP 53.9% ITT LV 22.7 / MIA 21.5
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread MIA +3.5 1.3 3.5 -105 hardrockbet 6.3 play 1.7u -105 lowvig model/market gap crosses 3
total over 40.5 44.2 40.5 -110 hardrockbet -3.4 no play — -105 espnbet
moneyline LV -1.3 — -200 hardrockbet -3.9 no play — -175 espnbet
WAS @ PHI Sun 9/13 3:25 PM CT published 2026-08-28 22:08 UTC Open
Model: PHI -6.1 Total 44.0 Home WP 69.3% ITT PHI 25.1 / WAS 18.9
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread WAS +4.5 6.1 4.5 -105 hardrockbet -0.3 no play — +103 pinnacle model/market gap crosses 6
total under 45.5 44.0 45.5 -110 hardrockbet -1.2 no play — -105 coolbet
moneyline PHI -6.1 — -230 hardrockbet -3.3 no play — -205 draftkings
DAL @ NYG Sun 9/13 7:20 PM CT published 2026-08-28 22:08 UTC Open
Model: NYG -0.6 Total 44.2 Home WP 51.6% ITT NYG 22.4 / DAL 21.8
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread NYG +2.5 -0.6 2.5 +100 hardrockbet -3.1 no play — +108 pinnacle moneyline is the better expression (-2.2% vs -3.1%)
total under 48.5 44.2 48.5 -110 hardrockbet 1.2 no play — +104 pinnacle
moneyline NYG -0.6 — +130 hardrockbet -2.2 no play — +140 everygame
DEN @ KC Mon 9/14 7:15 PM CT published 2026-08-28 22:08 UTC Open
Model: KC 0.0 Total 42.4 Home WP 49.4% ITT KC 21.2 / DEN 21.2
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread DEN +2.5 0.0 2.5 -105 hardrockbet -4.0 no play — +101 gtbets
total under 43.5 42.4 43.5 -115 hardrockbet -3.6 no play — +100 hardrockbet_oh
moneyline KC 0.0 — -145 hardrockbet -2.4 no play — -128 marathonbet