Interceptions ?

What it is

A decision sheet, not a model. There are no picks or probabilities of ours here: every number is either the market's or a plain stat, laid out so you can judge the over or under yourself. One row per QB with a main interceptions line this week. Lines refresh hourly from our existing captures; stats rebuild every morning.

Line and market

• Line / Over / Under — Hard Rock's line and prices, and only Hard Rock's. If Hard Rock hasn't posted the QB, these show "—" with a no HR tag (no other book's line stands in); the other books' quotes stay visible in the row detail for comparison.
• Mkt U% — the market's chance of the under after removing the vig, averaged across every book quoting both sides at Hard Rock's line (n books underneath). Blank when Hard Rock hasn't posted the QB. Under 0.5 means zero interceptions.
• Best U — the best under price at Hard Rock's line and which book has it (comparison — blank when Hard Rock hasn't posted the QB).
• Spread — the QB's team's spread (−6.5 = favored by 6.5) with the game total underneath.

QB columns

• INT% — interceptions per pass attempt this season, with last season underneath.
• TWP% — PFF turnover-worthy plays per dropback (this season, last season underneath). A turnover-worthy play is a throw that should have been picked, whether or not it was. It is steadier than INT%: a QB with a high TWP% and few interceptions has been lucky, and vice versa.
• Att/g — pass attempts per game this season. More attempts, more chances.
• Clean L5 / Clean Szn — games where he threw zero interceptions (the under at 0.5 cashing). "0 of 2" means no clean games in two, not zero interceptions. Underneath: how many interceptions he actually threw over those games, and last season's clean games. The last five reach back into last season early in the year.
• Last — attempts and interceptions in his previous game.

Defense columns (the QB's opponent)

• INT/g L17 — interceptions per game over the defense's last 17 games, across seasons.
• Szn INT — interceptions this season and games played (last season underneath).
• No-INT — games in a row without an interception. Three or more is highlighted.
• Forced TWP% — turnover-worthy plays by opposing QBs per dropback against this defense (PFF), with its rank (1 = forces the most). A secondary that forces bad throws but doesn't catch them may be due; one that forces none is the "bad DB outfit" signal.

The screen: favorite vs quiet defense

Rows with a green edge and a Screen badge fit the one simple rule we tested: the QB's team is favored by 3+ and the defense averages under 0.6 interceptions a game over its last 17. On 2023–25 closing lines (10 books, no Hard Rock history):

That was +5.3% per bet at the median book, but it lost in 2023, is only about 1.9 standard errors from chance, and disappears if the favorite cutoff moves to 4. Treat it as a place to look, not a bet.

Using the board

Click any column header to sort; click again to flip. Click a row for the QB's last eight games (attempts, interceptions, turnover-worthy plays), the defense's last eight, and every book's quote. Filters narrows to one game; "Screen spots only" shows just the highlighted rows; "Hide started games" drops kickoffs that have passed. The choices stay in the page address.