Receptions ?

What's on it

Every player Hard Rock Bet has posted a main receptions line for in the current week, one row per player. Only Hard Rock's number is shown — no other books, no alternates. Lines refresh hourly from our existing captures, so a player missing here usually means the capture hasn't seen his line yet, not that Hard Rock never posted one.

Line movement

Every hourly capture of Hard Rock's quote since the line first posted is kept. The Moves column counts only changes in the line — a price change on the same number (23.5 at -110, then 23.5 at -115) is not a move — Click the count to expand the week's line path (for example 2.5 → 3.5 → 2.5) with when each move happened in CT and the price it posted at.

Columns

• Line / O / U — Hard Rock's current line, and the American prices with the over on top and the under underneath (the column sorts by the over price).
• Last game: Snap% / Rt / Tgt / Rec — the player's previous game in four sortable columns: offensive snap share, routes run (PFF, lands Tuesday), targets and receptions. The week tag under Snap% says which game.
• L3 — average receptions over the last three games played, with average targets and routes and how many games that actually is (n) underneath.
• vs Line — the L3 average receptions minus the current line: +2.5 means he has averaged 2.5 more than the number over his last three games, −1.5 means 1.5 fewer. The hit rates say how often he cleared the line; this says by how much — a 100% hit rate on a +0.5 cushion is a lot thinner than it looks.
• L3 / L5 / SZN hit — how often the player went over the current line in his last 3, last 5, and all games this season. Lines are always x.5, so the under rate is simply the remainder. Only games the player appeared in count; a game where he played but caught nothing counts as 0.

Filters and sorting

The position chips filter to WR, RB (fullbacks included) or TE. Filters opens the week's scoreboard — kickoff, spread and total, records, live and final scores — and picking a game narrows the board to that matchup; clear it with the × on the chip. The choice is kept in the page address, so a filtered view can be bookmarked or shared.

Stat search — set a min and/or max on the line and on last game's snap %, routes, targets or receptions; every bound you fill in must hold. Examples: Line 1.5–1.5 with Last game targets min 8 finds cheap lines on busy players; Line min 4.5 with Last game routes max 6 finds big lines on players who barely ran. A player with no value for a field you've bounded (no previous game, or routes not loaded yet) drops out. Search values also go into the page address. Clear resets them.

Matchup — click a player's row to open his card from the Matchups board: his route-running rank against the corners (WRs) or coverage units (TEs, RBs) he faces this week, projected snaps or routes against each, and the Matchup Advantage pips. Only each team's top three WRs and top two TEs and RBs get a card, so deeper players' rows don't open one.

Click any column header to sort; click again to flip direction. "Hide started games" drops players whose kickoff has passed.

Game script

Spread is the player's team line (−7.5 = favored by 7.5, +3 = a 3-point underdog, PK = pick'em) with the game total (O/U) underneath; Team tot is his team's implied points (total ÷ 2 minus spread ÷ 2). Favorites and underdogs of 6.5+ are tagged Big fav / Big dog. Lines are the consensus number from the NFL schedule feed, not Hard Rock's, and refresh with the daily schedule sync.

The usual read: a big favorite expects to lead, so late-game volume tilts to the run — good for its lead back's carries, cooler for its QB's attempts. A big underdog expects to chase, so it throws more — QB attempts and completions and receiver targets up, RB carries down. A high total or team total means more plays and more scoring chances for everyone. It's a lean, not a rule: the spread is a pre-game expectation, and the game that actually happens decides the script. Spread and Team tot sort and can be bounded in the stat search (a spread max of −6.5 finds big favorites).

Opponent vs position

Opp vs Pos is what this week's opponent has allowed per game to the player's position this season — receptions on top, receiving yards underneath — with its league rank, where 1st = most allowed (the softest matchup). Example: an RB facing a defense showing 40.3 yds/g · 7th has a defense that has given up the 7th-most receiving yards per game to running backs. Ranks in the top 8 are green, the bottom 8 red.

Built from regular-season box scores for games before this week (through Week 6), by the position listed in the box score (fullbacks count as RBs), divided by games the defense has played so byes don't drag it down. Early in the season a single big game can swing a rank — it's context, not a projection. Sort the column to rank the board by matchup, or use Opp rank vs pos in the stat search (max 10 = only top-10 softest matchups).

What this is not

There is no model or probability here — it's a raw market view for finding spots by eye. Hit rates at a line the book just moved are backward-looking by definition; check the usage columns before trusting a small n.