Player Props
← → · Performance & record · MethodologyHow the Player Props board works
What you're looking at
One row per player per market for the coming week. "Our Proj" is the model's median projection, with its middle-50% range (25th–75th percentile) underneath. "Line" is the sportsbook number we priced against, with that book's over and under prices. "P(Over)" is our calibrated probability the player clears that line, and "Edge" is how far that sits from the book's own vig-free probability — shown both in probability points and in stat units (our projection minus the line).
The model
Each market gets its own model, matched to the shape of the stat. Yardage markets use a quantile ensemble that predicts the whole distribution rather than a single number; reception and attempt counts use a count model with its own spread parameter; rare events like passing touchdowns use a shrunk count model. Every model is trained on nflverse player-game data from 2021 on — usage and role, team pace and pass tendencies, opponent defensive efficiency and pressure, weather, and game script from the market's own spread and total. Raw predictions are then pulled partway toward the book's number (the blend weight is fit, not guessed) and passed through a calibration curve so a stated 60% actually means 60%.
Lines and no-vig prices
Books post several lines for the same player. We price the one whose two-way prices sit closest to an even market — nearest to −110 on both sides — because that line carries the least built-in margin and the cleanest implied probability. Stripping the margin out of both prices gives the "no-vig" probability: what the book really thinks, once its cut is removed. A "fair price" is the American odds that match our own probability with no margin at all; if the posted price is better than our fair price, the bet has positive expected value.
Edges and official picks
A row becomes an official pick only when several things line up: the market is approved for picks, our edge clears 4.5 probability points and the market's stat-unit threshold, a sharp reference book does not clearly disagree, the price isn't worse than −130, and the play survives per-player, per-team and per-slate exposure caps plus a correlation guard. Stakes are 25%-Kelly on our calibrated probability at the posted price, capped. During the shadow period picks are recorded internally and graded, but not published here — nothing goes on the board until the record is real.
Closing line value
CLV is the honest short-run scoreboard. It measures whether the market moved toward our number between the moment we priced a pick and kickoff. Prop samples are small and variance is large, so a handful of weeks of win-loss tells you almost nothing — but consistently beating the closing line is very hard to fake. We publish mean and median CLV, and the share of picks with positive CLV, alongside the record.
Model accuracy
"Model Acc" is the model's season-to-date record on that player in that market: the share of graded games where the side we leaned to (over or under, against the line we priced) is what the player actually did, with the count underneath. Pushes and games the player did not play are not counted. The smaller line shows the same record across all of the player's markets. A dash means nothing has graded yet for that player this season, so treat the first few games as noise — two or three results say very little.
The prop card
Click a player's name to open their prop card. It shows every prop we priced for them this week, and four tabs: Overview (projection vs the line, P(over), edge, the model's record on this player, and hit rates against today's line over the last 5, last 10, this season, and head-to-head), Matchup (the player's card from our matchups board: PFF-graded player rank against the opponent's defensive units), Hit Rate (game-by-game results against a line you can move, over or under, with our projection as the last bar), and Odds (every book's line and prices from the latest snapshot, best price highlighted, Hard Rock alternates).
Past weeks and results
Use the week picker in the header to walk back through earlier boards. Once a game is graded (the morning after it ends), the "Result" column shows what the player actually did and whether our side was right; a pick that voided says why (DNP, no line). Past-week boards show every game by default.
The confidence badge
High, Standard or Watch reflects how well our projections have tracked that specific player in that specific market over time — accuracy against the line, whether our range has covered the actual results, and whether we've been persistently high or low. Players we've modelled poorly get no badge and no pick. New or low-sample players sit at Standard until there is enough history to say more.
No priced projections yet.
The board fills in once the week's usage data and Hard Rock's prop lines are in (Wednesday for the main slate, earlier in the week for standalone games). Check back then.