WR Model
Week 7, 2026 boardFlagged edges (last 4 graded wks)8-5
Hit rate61.5%
Mean CLV+2.59 pts
| Player | Team | Opp | Our Line | Range (q25–q75) | Book | Book Line | P(Over) | Edge | ⚑ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown WR1 | NE | CHI | 47.0 | 30.3–77 | hardrockbet | 69.5 | 48.1% | -5.3 pts | |
| DK Metcalf WR1 | PIT | NO | 50.5 | 30.5–80.9 | hardrockbet | 53.5 | 48.8% | -1.2 pts | |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1 | DET | GB | 71.0 | 42.3–90.3 | hardrockbet | 78.5 | 48.8% | -1.2 pts | |
| Chris Olave WR1 | NO | PIT | 70.0 | 47.2–103.7 | hardrockbet | 76.5 | 48.8% | -1.2 pts | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1 | SEA | KC | 77.5 | 50.2–102.2 | hardrockbet | 92.5 | 48.8% | -1.2 pts | |
| Matthew Golden WR1 | GB | DET | 62.0 | 38.5–87.6 | hardrockbet | 73.5 | 48.8% | -1.2 pts | |
| Luther Burden III WR1 | CHI | NE | 47.5 | 25.5–68.4 | hardrockbet | 55.5 | 48.8% | -1.2 pts | |
| Keenan Allen WR1 | IND | MIN | 37.5 | 21.6–61.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Mike Evans WR1 | SF | ATL | 61.5 | 33–82.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Justin Jefferson WR1 | MIN | IND | 68.5 | 33–91 | — | — | — | — | |
| CeeDee Lamb WR1 | DAL | PHI | 64.5 | 47.4–91.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Nico Collins WR1 | HOU | NYG | 60.0 | 32.6–88.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jaylen Waddle WR1 | DEN | ARI | 40.0 | 25.3–66.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Ja'Marr Chase WR1 | CIN | BAL | 61.5 | 37.1–90.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| DeVonta Smith WR1 | PHI | DAL | 55.5 | 36.7–82.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Drake London WR1 | ATL | SF | 68.0 | 42.3–94.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Garrett Wilson WR1 | NYJ | MIA | 58.0 | 35.7–82.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Michael Wilson WR1 | ARI | DEN | 59.0 | 37.4–92.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tre Tucker WR1 | LV | LA | 43.5 | 22.9–65 | — | — | — | — | |
| Zay Flowers WR1 | BAL | CIN | 77.5 | 42.9–107.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Rashee Rice WR1 | KC | SEA | 47.5 | 31.3–77.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Puka Nacua WR1 | LA | LV | 71.5 | 50.4–99.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Malik Nabers WR1 | NYG | HOU | 63.0 | 39.8–77.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Malik Washington WR1 | MIA | NYJ | 40.0 | 23.1–64.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tetairoa McMillan WR1 | CAR | TB | 61.0 | 40.6–87.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Emeka Egbuka WR1 | TB | CAR | 46.5 | 24–73.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Carnell Tate WR1 | TEN | CLE | 56.0 | 33.8–74.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| KC Concepcion WR1 | CLE | TEN | 31.0 | 16.5–50.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Cooper Kupp WR2 | SEA | KC | 28.5 | 13.9–48.8 | hardrockbet | 24.5 | 51.5% | +2 pts | |
| Rome Odunze WR2 | CHI | NE | 43.0 | 22.3–70 | hardrockbet | 45.5 | 48.8% | -1.7 pts | |
| Devaughn Vele WR2 | NO | PIT | 44.0 | 26.5–68.9 | hardrockbet | 41.5 | 51.5% | +1.6 pts | |
| Christian Watson WR2 | GB | DET | 61.0 | 33.7–95.5 | hardrockbet | 73.5 | 48.8% | -1.6 pts | |
| Jameson Williams WR2 | DET | GB | 52.5 | 20.8–67.7 | hardrockbet | 53.5 | 48.8% | -1.2 pts | |
| Germie Bernard WR2 | PIT | NO | 36.0 | 18–63.5 | hardrockbet | 53.5 | 48.8% | -1.2 pts | |
| Davante Adams WR2 | LA | LV | 61.0 | 31.2–82.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tyreek Hill WR2 | MIA | NYJ | 40.0 | 20.6–61.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Kendrick Bourne WR2 | ARI | DEN | 25.5 | 10.3–47.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Mack Hollins WR2 | NE | CHI | 40.0 | 21.3–64.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Courtland Sutton WR2 | DEN | ARI | 29.0 | 10.6–52.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Darius Slayton WR2 | NYG | HOU | 16.0 | 10.7–35.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Brandon Aiyuk WR2 | SF | ATL | 42.0 | 17–53.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tee Higgins WR2 | CIN | BAL | 60.5 | 34.6–89.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Rashod Bateman WR2 | BAL | CIN | 25.5 | 13.8–45.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| George Pickens WR2 | DAL | PHI | 53.0 | 29.2–76.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jahan Dotson WR2 | ATL | SF | 31.0 | 13.3–56 | — | — | — | — | |
| Wan'Dale Robinson WR2 | TEN | CLE | 38.0 | 25.8–61.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tank Dell WR2 | HOU | NYG | 28.5 | 15.6–48.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jordan Addison WR2 | MIN | IND | 40.5 | 16.2–64.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Josh Downs WR2 | IND | MIN | 38.5 | 24.4–61.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jalen Coker WR2 | CAR | TB | 54.0 | 31.7–78 | — | — | — | — | |
| Adonai Mitchell WR2 | NYJ | MIA | 51.0 | 24.4–70.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Xavier Worthy WR2 | KC | SEA | 36.5 | 19.9–52.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Makai Lemon WR2 | PHI | DAL | 26.5 | 10.5–46.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Denzel Boston WR2 | CLE | TEN | 50.0 | 25.2–77.6 | — | — | — | — |
Methodology. A LightGBM quantile model (q10–q90) trained on nflverse
player-game data since 2021 projects each receiver's yardage and receptions distribution from
role (target/air-yards share, snaps, depth chart, injuries), team tendencies (pass rate over
expected, pace), opponent pass defense (EPA, pressure), and game environment (Vegas totals,
spread, venue). Quantiles become a full probability curve, calibrated against three seasons of
real closing lines, so P(over) is priced for the actual book line. Edges compare our
probability to the de-vigged sharp market; validation is strictly walk-forward (the model
never sees the week it predicts). Predictions freeze when published and grade automatically
after games — history and CLV are tracked on every flagged edge.