Rushing Yards ?

What's on it

Every player Hard Rock Bet has posted a main rushing yards line for in the current week, one row per player — running backs and quarterbacks (fullbacks count as RBs; the odd receiver with a line shows under All). Only Hard Rock's number is shown — no other books, no alternates. Lines refresh hourly from our existing captures, so a player missing here usually means the capture hasn't seen his line yet, not that Hard Rock never posted one.

Line movement

Every hourly capture of Hard Rock's quote since the line first posted is kept. The Moves column counts only changes in the line — a price change on the same number (62.5 at -110, then 62.5 at -115) is not a move. Click the count to expand the week's line path (for example 55.5 → 58.5 → 56.5) with when each move happened in CT and the price it posted at.

Columns

• Line / O / U — Hard Rock's current line, and the American prices with the over on top and the under underneath (the column sorts by the over price).
• Last game: Snap% / Car / Yds / YPC / Share — the player's previous game: offensive snap share, carries, rushing yards, yards per carry (— with no carries), and Share, his carries as a percent of his team's total carries that game — the quickest way to spot a back taking over (or losing) a backfield. The week tag under Snap% says which game.
• L3 — average rushing yards over the last three games played; hover it for the other averages (carries, yards, share) and how many games that actually is.
• vs Line — the L3 L3 average minus the current line: +2.5 means he has averaged 2.5 more than the number over his last three games, −1.5 means 1.5 fewer. The hit rates say how often he cleared the line; this says by how much — a 100% hit rate on a +0.5 cushion is a lot thinner than it looks.
• L3 / L5 / SZN hit — how often the player went over the current line in rushing yards in his last 3, last 5, and all games this season. Lines are always x.5, so the under rate is simply the remainder. Only games the player appeared in (took a snap) count; a game where he played but never ran it counts as 0.
• Quarterbacks: kneel-downs are recorded as carries (usually for −1 yard) in the box score, so a QB's carries, Share and YPC can read a little off after a game his team closed out.

Filters and sorting

The position chips filter to RB or QB. Filters opens the week's scoreboard — kickoff, spread and total, records, live and final scores — and picking a game narrows the board to that matchup; clear it with the × on the chip. The choice is kept in the page address, so a filtered view can be bookmarked or shared.

Stat search — set a min and/or max on the line and on last game's snap %, carries, yards or share; every bound you fill in must hold. Examples: Line max 45.5 with Last game carries min 15 finds cheap lines on busy backs; Line min 70.5 with Last game yds max 40 finds big lines on backs who were held in check last week. A player with no value for a field you've bounded (no previous game) drops out. Search values also go into the page address. Clear resets them.

Matchup — click a player's row to open his card from the Matchups board: the RB Rushing card for backs (his run-game rank against the defensive front he faces) and the QB card for quarterbacks, with the Matchup Advantage pips. Only players with a stored card (each team's lead backs and starting QB) open one.

Click any column header to sort; click again to flip direction. "Hide started games" drops players whose kickoff has passed.

Workhorse (running backs)

The Role column sorts every back into Workhorse, Lead or Committee from his last 4 games played (3 at minimum; with fewer the button shows just the game count, e.g. n=2, and no verdict). It measures how much of his team's backfield he owns — not raw carries, which mostly track how much his team runs. A Workhorse passes all four tests:

• 65%+ of his team's RB carries over those games (pooled — RB and FB carries only, so QB scrambles don't count against him).
• 60%+ of the RB carries in most individual games (more than half: 3 of 4, or 2 of 3). This catches a split backfield that pools to a big number — 90% one week, 40% the next — and it's the "regardless of game script" test: a true workhorse keeps his share in blowouts and losses even when the team only runs 15 times.
• 55%+ of offensive snaps on average — on the field more often than not. Many bellcows come off on passing downs, so the bar is a floor, not 70%.
• No healthy second back averaging 8+ carries in the same games. Healthy means the teammate played his team's most recent game and isn't listed Out or Doubtful on this week's injury report (once it posts). A busy teammate who is out is shown for context but doesn't break the test.

Lead = not a workhorse but still 50%+ of the RB carries; Committee = under 50%. Click the role to see each test with the numbers behind it, plus a Situations line from play-by-play over the same games: his RB carries on short yardage (3rd or 4th and 2 or less) and inside the 5 — with the other back named when he got as many or more — next to what his team actually called in those spots (pass calls, including sacks and scrambles, vs QB runs vs RB runs; "TB 18 snaps: 10 pass · 3 QB · 5 RB" means only 5 of 18 went to a back at all), and his share of the RB carries while his team was trailing by 8+ and leading by 8+. Those are information, not tests: a team only sees a couple of short-yardage runs a game (QB sneaks take some), too few to judge a role on, but a back who loses them, or whose share collapses when his team falls behind, is less of a lock than his overall share says. A workhorse on a pass-heavy team can still sit at 14 carries a week, so for an over, check vs Line and the game script too. "Workhorses only" filters to backs that pass every test. QBs have no role.

Game script

Spread is the player's team line (−7.5 = favored by 7.5, +3 = a 3-point underdog, PK = pick'em) with the game total (O/U) underneath; Team tot is his team's implied points (total ÷ 2 minus spread ÷ 2). Favorites and underdogs of 6.5+ are tagged Big fav / Big dog. Lines are the consensus number from the NFL schedule feed, not Hard Rock's, and refresh with the daily schedule sync.

The usual read: a big favorite expects to lead, so late-game volume tilts to the run — good for its lead back's carries, cooler for its QB's attempts. A big underdog expects to chase, so it throws more — QB attempts and completions and receiver targets up, RB carries down. A high total or team total means more plays and more scoring chances for everyone. It's a lean, not a rule: the spread is a pre-game expectation, and the game that actually happens decides the script. Spread and Team tot sort and can be bounded in the stat search (a spread max of −6.5 finds big favorites).

Opponent vs position

Opp vs Pos is what this week's opponent has allowed per game to the player's position this season — rushing yards on top, carries underneath — with its league rank, where 1st = most allowed (the softest matchup). An RB facing a defense ranked 1st is facing the defense that has given up the most rushing yards per game to running backs; a QB's number counts QB runs only (scrambles, designed runs and kneel-downs). Ranks in the top 8 are green, the bottom 8 red.

Built from regular-season box scores for games before this week (through Week 6), by the position listed in the box score (fullbacks count as RBs), divided by games the defense has played so byes don't drag it down. Early in the season a single big game can swing a rank — it's context, not a projection. Sort the column to rank the board by matchup, or use Opp rank vs pos in the stat search (max 10 = only top-10 softest matchups).

What this is not

There is no model or probability here — it's a raw market view for finding spots by eye. Hit rates at a line the book just moved are backward-looking by definition; check Share and snaps before trusting a small n.