WR Model
Week 7, 2026 boardFlagged edges (last 4 graded wks)8-5
Hit rate61.5%
Mean CLV+2.59 pts
| Player | Team | Opp | Our Line | Range (q25–q75) | Book | Book Line | P(Over) | Edge | ⚑ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Golden WR1 | GB | DET | 4.5 | 3–6.1 | hardrockbet | 4.5 | 51.1% | -6.3 pts | |
| A.J. Brown WR1 | NE | CHI | 4.5 | 2.5–5.7 | hardrockbet | 4.5 | 51.1% | -6.1 pts | |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1 | DET | GB | 6.0 | 4.2–7.1 | hardrockbet | 7.5 | 42.8% | -5.2 pts | |
| Chris Olave WR1 | NO | PIT | 6.0 | 4.3–7.5 | hardrockbet | 5.5 | 52.3% | -4.3 pts | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1 | SEA | KC | 6.5 | 4.6–8 | hardrockbet | 6.5 | 51.1% | -2.9 pts | |
| Luther Burden III WR1 | CHI | NE | 4.5 | 2.8–5.9 | hardrockbet | 4.5 | 51.1% | -1.8 pts | |
| DK Metcalf WR1 | PIT | NO | 4.5 | 2.8–6.7 | hardrockbet | 4.5 | 51.1% | -1.2 pts | |
| Keenan Allen WR1 | IND | MIN | 4.0 | 2.4–5.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Mike Evans WR1 | SF | ATL | 4.0 | 3–5.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Justin Jefferson WR1 | MIN | IND | 4.5 | 3.2–6.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| CeeDee Lamb WR1 | DAL | PHI | 6.0 | 4.3–7.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Nico Collins WR1 | HOU | NYG | 4.0 | 3.2–6.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jaylen Waddle WR1 | DEN | ARI | 3.5 | 2.4–4.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Ja'Marr Chase WR1 | CIN | BAL | 5.5 | 3.6–7.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| DeVonta Smith WR1 | PHI | DAL | 4.5 | 3.4–6.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Drake London WR1 | ATL | SF | 4.5 | 3.2–6.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Garrett Wilson WR1 | NYJ | MIA | 4.5 | 3.1–5.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Michael Wilson WR1 | ARI | DEN | 5.0 | 3–6.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tre Tucker WR1 | LV | LA | 3.5 | 2.2–4.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Zay Flowers WR1 | BAL | CIN | 6.0 | 3.9–7.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Rashee Rice WR1 | KC | SEA | 4.5 | 3–7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Puka Nacua WR1 | LA | LV | 6.0 | 4.2–7.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Malik Nabers WR1 | NYG | HOU | 5.0 | 3.6–6.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Malik Washington WR1 | MIA | NYJ | 4.0 | 2.8–5.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tetairoa McMillan WR1 | CAR | TB | 5.0 | 3.1–5.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Emeka Egbuka WR1 | TB | CAR | 4.0 | 2.6–5.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Carnell Tate WR1 | TEN | CLE | 4.5 | 2.8–6.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| KC Concepcion WR1 | CLE | TEN | 3.5 | 2.3–4.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Germie Bernard WR2 | PIT | NO | 4.0 | 2.2–5.3 | hardrockbet | 4.5 | 42.9% | -13.7 pts | ⚑ |
| Jameson Williams WR2 | DET | GB | 3.0 | 1.8–4.6 | hardrockbet | 3.5 | 42.9% | -10.2 pts | |
| Christian Watson WR2 | GB | DET | 4.5 | 3.1–6.1 | hardrockbet | 4.5 | 51.1% | +7.8 pts | |
| Cooper Kupp WR2 | SEA | KC | 2.0 | 1.5–4 | hardrockbet | 2.5 | 50.5% | +6.1 pts | |
| Rome Odunze WR2 | CHI | NE | 3.0 | 1.7–4.3 | hardrockbet | 3.5 | 45.2% | +1.9 pts | |
| Devaughn Vele WR2 | NO | PIT | 4.0 | 2.5–5.5 | hardrockbet | 4.5 | 42.9% | +1.3 pts | |
| Davante Adams WR2 | LA | LV | 3.5 | 2.6–6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tyreek Hill WR2 | MIA | NYJ | 3.0 | 2.3–5.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Kendrick Bourne WR2 | ARI | DEN | 2.5 | 1.1–4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Mack Hollins WR2 | NE | CHI | 3.0 | 1.8–4.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Courtland Sutton WR2 | DEN | ARI | 2.5 | 1.2–3.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Darius Slayton WR2 | NYG | HOU | 1.5 | 0.8–2.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Brandon Aiyuk WR2 | SF | ATL | 2.0 | 1.8–3.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tee Higgins WR2 | CIN | BAL | 4.0 | 2.7–6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Rashod Bateman WR2 | BAL | CIN | 2.0 | 1.2–3.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| George Pickens WR2 | DAL | PHI | 4.5 | 2.9–5.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jahan Dotson WR2 | ATL | SF | 2.0 | 1.1–3.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Wan'Dale Robinson WR2 | TEN | CLE | 4.5 | 2.6–5.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tank Dell WR2 | HOU | NYG | 2.0 | 1.3–2.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jordan Addison WR2 | MIN | IND | 3.0 | 1.1–4.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Josh Downs WR2 | IND | MIN | 3.0 | 2.2–4.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jalen Coker WR2 | CAR | TB | 4.5 | 3–6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Adonai Mitchell WR2 | NYJ | MIA | 3.5 | 2.4–4.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Xavier Worthy WR2 | KC | SEA | 3.5 | 1.6–4.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Makai Lemon WR2 | PHI | DAL | 2.5 | 1.5–3.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Denzel Boston WR2 | CLE | TEN | 3.5 | 1.8–4.6 | — | — | — | — |
Methodology. A LightGBM quantile model (q10–q90) trained on nflverse
player-game data since 2021 projects each receiver's yardage and receptions distribution from
role (target/air-yards share, snaps, depth chart, injuries), team tendencies (pass rate over
expected, pace), opponent pass defense (EPA, pressure), and game environment (Vegas totals,
spread, venue). Quantiles become a full probability curve, calibrated against three seasons of
real closing lines, so P(over) is priced for the actual book line. Edges compare our
probability to the de-vigged sharp market; validation is strictly walk-forward (the model
never sees the week it predicts). Predictions freeze when published and grade automatically
after games — history and CLV are tracked on every flagged edge.