WR Model
Week 1, 2026 board| Player | Team | Opp | Our Line | Range (q25–q75) | Book | Book Line | P(Over) | Edge | ⚑ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1 | SEA | NE | 5.0 | 3.4–7 | draftkings | 6.5 | 42.1% | -5.3 pts | |
| A.J. Brown WR1 | PHI | WAS | 5.0 | 3.2–6.6 | draftkings | 4.5 | 51.4% | -1.4 pts | |
| Puka Nacua WR1 | LA | SF | 5.5 | 4–6.9 | draftkings | 7.5 | 42.1% | -1.2 pts | |
| Keenan Allen WR1 | LAC | ARI | 2.5 | 2–3.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Mack Hollins WR1 | NE | SEA | 2.5 | 1.8–4.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Courtland Sutton WR1 | DEN | KC | 4.0 | 2.5–5.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| DK Metcalf WR1 | PIT | ATL | 3.5 | 2.4–5.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Terry McLaurin WR1 | WAS | PHI | 3.5 | 2.3–5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Brandon Aiyuk WR1 | SF | LA | 2.5 | 2–3.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Justin Jefferson WR1 | MIN | GB | 4.0 | 2.6–6.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jerry Jeudy WR1 | CLE | JAX | 3.0 | 1.5–4.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Nico Collins WR1 | HOU | BUF | 3.5 | 2.3–4.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jaylen Waddle WR1 | MIA | LV | 3.0 | 2.1–4.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Ja'Marr Chase WR1 | CIN | TB | 5.0 | 3.7–7.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1 | DET | NO | 5.5 | 3.5–6.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Drake London WR1 | ATL | PIT | 4.0 | 2.8–6.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Chris Olave WR1 | NO | DET | 5.0 | 3.3–6.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| George Pickens WR1 | DAL | NYG | 3.5 | 2.5–5.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Khalil Shakir WR1 | BUF | HOU | 3.5 | 2.3–5.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Garrett Wilson WR1 | NYJ | TEN | 3.5 | 2.6–5.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Wan'Dale Robinson WR1 | NYG | DAL | 4.5 | 3.6–6.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Christian Watson WR1 | GB | MIN | 3.0 | 2.3–5.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Michael Wilson WR1 | ARI | LAC | 5.0 | 3.3–6.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tre Tucker WR1 | LV | MIA | 3.5 | 1.5–4.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Parker Washington WR1 | JAX | CLE | 3.5 | 2.4–5.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Josh Downs WR1 | IND | BAL | 2.0 | 1.3–3.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Zay Flowers WR1 | BAL | IND | 4.0 | 2.7–6.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Rashee Rice WR1 | KC | DEN | 5.0 | 3.5–6.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Rome Odunze WR1 | CHI | CAR | 2.5 | 1.4–4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tetairoa McMillan WR1 | CAR | CHI | 3.5 | 2.4–4.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Elic Ayomanor WR1 | TEN | NYJ | 2.0 | 0.9–3.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Romeo Doubs WR2 | GB | MIN | 2.0 | 1.7–3.7 | draftkings | 2.5 | 49.7% | -6.2 pts | |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. WR2 | WAS | PHI | 3.0 | 2–4.3 | draftkings | 2.5 | 52.2% | -4.4 pts | |
| Mike Evans WR2 | TB | CIN | 3.5 | 2.3–5.1 | draftkings | 3.5 | 49.7% | -4.4 pts | |
| Cooper Kupp WR2 | SEA | NE | 2.5 | 1.8–3.5 | draftkings | 2.5 | 50% | -1.3 pts | |
| DeAndre Hopkins WR2 | BAL | IND | 1.0 | 0.4–2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Davante Adams WR2 | LA | SF | 3.0 | 2–4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Amari Cooper WR2 | BUF | HOU | 1.0 | 0.4–2.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Stefon Diggs WR2 | NE | SEA | 3.0 | 1.9–4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tyreek Hill WR2 | MIA | LV | 3.5 | 2.5–5.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR2 | PIT | ATL | 1.0 | 0.6–2.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jakobi Meyers WR2 | JAX | CLE | 3.0 | 2–3.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Michael Pittman WR2 | IND | BAL | 2.0 | 1.5–3.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jauan Jennings WR2 | SF | LA | 2.5 | 1.3–3.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Darnell Mooney WR2 | ATL | PIT | 1.5 | 0.8–3.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| CeeDee Lamb WR2 | DAL | NYG | 4.0 | 2.5–5.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tee Higgins WR2 | CIN | TB | 3.0 | 1.7–5 | — | — | — | — | |
| DeVonta Smith WR2 | PHI | WAS | 4.0 | 2.4–5.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jameson Williams WR2 | DET | NO | 3.5 | 2.3–5.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Quentin Johnston WR2 | LAC | ARI | 2.5 | 1.6–3.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Xavier Hutchinson WR2 | HOU | BUF | 2.0 | 1.1–3.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Marvin Mims Jr. WR2 | DEN | KC | 2.0 | 0.8–3.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jordan Addison WR2 | MIN | GB | 1.5 | 0.9–3.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Malik Nabers WR2 | NYG | DAL | 4.5 | 3.3–6.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Devaughn Vele WR2 | NO | DET | 1.5 | 1.2–3.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jalen Coker WR2 | CAR | CHI | 3.5 | 2.2–4.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. WR2 | ARI | LAC | 2.5 | 1.2–3.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Adonai Mitchell WR2 | NYJ | TEN | 2.5 | 1.2–4.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Xavier Worthy WR2 | KC | DEN | 1.5 | 1–3.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Chimere Dike WR2 | TEN | NYJ | 2.0 | 1.2–2.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Luther Burden III WR2 | CHI | CAR | 3.5 | 1.7–4.1 | — | — | — | — |
Methodology. A LightGBM quantile model (q10–q90) trained on nflverse
player-game data since 2021 projects each receiver's yardage and receptions distribution from
role (target/air-yards share, snaps, depth chart, injuries), team tendencies (pass rate over
expected, pace), opponent pass defense (EPA, pressure), and game environment (Vegas totals,
spread, venue). Quantiles become a full probability curve, calibrated against three seasons of
real closing lines, so P(over) is priced for the actual book line. Edges compare our
probability to the de-vigged sharp market; validation is strictly walk-forward (the model
never sees the week it predicts). Predictions freeze when published and grade automatically
after games — history and CLV are tracked on every flagged edge.