WR Model
Week 7, 2026 boardFlagged edges (last 4 graded wks)8-5
Hit rate61.5%
Mean CLV+2.59 pts
| Player | Team | Opp | Our Line | Range (q25–q75) | Book | Book Line | P(Over) | Edge | ⚑ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Golden WR1 | GB | DET | 4.5 | 3–6.1 | hardrockbet | 4.5 | 51.1% | -6.3 pts | |
| A.J. Brown WR1 | NE | CHI | 4.5 | 2.5–5.7 | hardrockbet | 4.5 | 51.1% | -6.1 pts | |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1 | DET | GB | 6.0 | 4.2–7.1 | hardrockbet | 7.5 | 42.8% | -5.2 pts | |
| Chris Olave WR1 | NO | PIT | 6.0 | 4.3–7.5 | hardrockbet | 5.5 | 52.3% | -4.3 pts | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1 | SEA | KC | 6.5 | 4.6–8 | hardrockbet | 6.5 | 51.1% | -2.9 pts | |
| Luther Burden III WR1 | CHI | NE | 4.5 | 2.8–5.9 | hardrockbet | 4.5 | 51.1% | -1.8 pts | |
| DK Metcalf WR1 | PIT | NO | 4.5 | 2.8–6.7 | hardrockbet | 4.5 | 51.1% | -1.2 pts | |
| Keenan Allen WR1 | IND | MIN | 4.0 | 2.4–5.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Mike Evans WR1 | SF | ATL | 4.0 | 3–5.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Justin Jefferson WR1 | MIN | IND | 4.5 | 3.2–6.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| CeeDee Lamb WR1 | DAL | PHI | 6.0 | 4.3–7.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Nico Collins WR1 | HOU | NYG | 4.0 | 3.2–6.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jaylen Waddle WR1 | DEN | ARI | 3.5 | 2.4–4.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Ja'Marr Chase WR1 | CIN | BAL | 5.5 | 3.6–7.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| DeVonta Smith WR1 | PHI | DAL | 4.5 | 3.4–6.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Drake London WR1 | ATL | SF | 4.5 | 3.2–6.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Garrett Wilson WR1 | NYJ | MIA | 4.5 | 3.1–5.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Michael Wilson WR1 | ARI | DEN | 5.0 | 3–6.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tre Tucker WR1 | LV | LA | 3.5 | 2.2–4.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Zay Flowers WR1 | BAL | CIN | 6.0 | 3.9–7.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Rashee Rice WR1 | KC | SEA | 4.5 | 3–7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Puka Nacua WR1 | LA | LV | 6.0 | 4.2–7.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Malik Nabers WR1 | NYG | HOU | 5.0 | 3.6–6.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Malik Washington WR1 | MIA | NYJ | 4.0 | 2.8–5.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tetairoa McMillan WR1 | CAR | TB | 5.0 | 3.1–5.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Emeka Egbuka WR1 | TB | CAR | 4.0 | 2.6–5.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Carnell Tate WR1 | TEN | CLE | 4.5 | 2.8–6.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| KC Concepcion WR1 | CLE | TEN | 3.5 | 2.3–4.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Germie Bernard WR2 | PIT | NO | 4.0 | 2.2–5.3 | hardrockbet | 4.5 | 42.9% | -13.7 pts | ⚑ |
| Jameson Williams WR2 | DET | GB | 3.0 | 1.8–4.6 | hardrockbet | 3.5 | 42.9% | -10.2 pts | |
| Christian Watson WR2 | GB | DET | 4.5 | 3.1–6.1 | hardrockbet | 4.5 | 51.1% | +7.8 pts | |
| Cooper Kupp WR2 | SEA | KC | 2.0 | 1.5–4 | hardrockbet | 2.5 | 50.5% | +6.1 pts | |
| Rome Odunze WR2 | CHI | NE | 3.0 | 1.7–4.3 | hardrockbet | 3.5 | 45.2% | +1.9 pts | |
| Devaughn Vele WR2 | NO | PIT | 4.0 | 2.5–5.5 | hardrockbet | 4.5 | 42.9% | +1.3 pts | |
| Davante Adams WR2 | LA | LV | 3.5 | 2.6–6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tyreek Hill WR2 | MIA | NYJ | 3.0 | 2.3–5.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Kendrick Bourne WR2 | ARI | DEN | 2.5 | 1.1–4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Mack Hollins WR2 | NE | CHI | 3.0 | 1.8–4.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Courtland Sutton WR2 | DEN | ARI | 2.5 | 1.2–3.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Darius Slayton WR2 | NYG | HOU | 1.5 | 0.8–2.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Brandon Aiyuk WR2 | SF | ATL | 2.0 | 1.8–3.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tee Higgins WR2 | CIN | BAL | 4.0 | 2.7–6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Rashod Bateman WR2 | BAL | CIN | 2.0 | 1.2–3.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| George Pickens WR2 | DAL | PHI | 4.5 | 2.9–5.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jahan Dotson WR2 | ATL | SF | 2.0 | 1.1–3.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Wan'Dale Robinson WR2 | TEN | CLE | 4.5 | 2.6–5.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tank Dell WR2 | HOU | NYG | 2.0 | 1.3–2.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jordan Addison WR2 | MIN | IND | 3.0 | 1.1–4.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Josh Downs WR2 | IND | MIN | 3.0 | 2.2–4.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jalen Coker WR2 | CAR | TB | 4.5 | 3–6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Adonai Mitchell WR2 | NYJ | MIA | 3.5 | 2.4–4.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Xavier Worthy WR2 | KC | SEA | 3.5 | 1.6–4.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Makai Lemon WR2 | PHI | DAL | 2.5 | 1.5–3.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Denzel Boston WR2 | CLE | TEN | 3.5 | 1.8–4.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Hunter Henry eligible | NE | CHI | 3.0 | 1.4–4.1 | hardrockbet | 3.5 | 42.9% | -19.6 pts | |
| Cole Kmet eligible | CHI | NE | 1.0 | 0.8–2.5 | hardrockbet | 1.5 | 50.5% | +15.6 pts | |
| Noah Fant eligible | NO | PIT | 1.0 | 0.8–2 | hardrockbet | 1.5 | 42.9% | -9.3 pts | |
| Eli Raridon eligible | NE | CHI | 2.0 | 0.9–2.4 | hardrockbet | 1.5 | 52.3% | +9 pts | |
| Sam LaPorta eligible | DET | GB | 5.0 | 2.6–6.4 | hardrockbet | 4.5 | 51.1% | -4.8 pts | ⚑ |
| AJ Barner eligible | SEA | KC | 3.0 | 1.4–4.8 | hardrockbet | 2.5 | 52.3% | -4 pts | |
| Tucker Kraft eligible | GB | DET | 4.0 | 2.5–6.2 | hardrockbet | 4.5 | 45.2% | +3.3 pts | |
| Isaac TeSlaa eligible | DET | GB | 2.0 | 0.9–3.1 | hardrockbet | 1.5 | 52.3% | -3.2 pts | |
| DeMario Douglas eligible | NE | CHI | 2.5 | 1.3–4.2 | hardrockbet | 3.5 | 42.8% | +2.5 pts | |
| Kalif Raymond eligible | CHI | NE | 2.5 | 1.6–3.9 | hardrockbet | 2.5 | 52.3% | +2.3 pts | |
| Rashid Shaheed eligible | SEA | KC | 1.5 | 0.9–3.4 | hardrockbet | 2.5 | 42.9% | -1.8 pts | |
| Juwan Johnson eligible | NO | PIT | 3.5 | 2–4.3 | hardrockbet | 3.5 | 50.5% | -1.5 pts | |
| Colston Loveland eligible | CHI | NE | 3.5 | 2–5.1 | hardrockbet | 4.5 | 42.8% | -1 pts | |
| Adam Thielen eligible | PIT | NO | 1.0 | 0.7–1.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Robert Woods eligible | HOU | NYG | 1.0 | 0.2–1.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Travis Kelce eligible | KC | SEA | 3.5 | 2.2–5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Darren Waller eligible | CAR | TB | 2.5 | 1.2–3.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tyler Lockett eligible | LV | LA | 1.0 | 0.6–2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Sterling Shepard eligible | NYJ | MIA | 1.0 | 0.6–1.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Chris Moore eligible | BAL | CIN | 1.0 | 0.6–1.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Demarcus Robinson eligible | SF | ATL | 2.0 | 1–3.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Laquon Treadwell eligible | IND | MIN | 2.0 | 1.1–2.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tyler Boyd eligible | TEN | CLE | 1.0 | 0.3–1.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tyler Higbee eligible | LA | LV | 3.0 | 1.7–4.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Johnny Mundt eligible | PHI | DAL | 1.0 | 0.7–1.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| George Kittle eligible | SF | ATL | 4.5 | 2.6–5.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tim Patrick eligible | NYJ | MIA | 1.5 | 1–2.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Anthony Firkser eligible | DET | GB | 0.5 | 0.1–1.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster eligible | KC | SEA | 0.5 | 0.3–1.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Evan Engram eligible | DEN | ARI | 1.5 | 1.1–3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Zay Jones eligible | ARI | DEN | 0.5 | 0.2–1.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Chris Godwin Jr. eligible | TB | CAR | 3.5 | 2–4.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Josh Reynolds eligible | NYJ | MIA | 1.5 | 0.7–2.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Dallas Goedert eligible | PHI | DAL | 4.0 | 2.7–5.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jordan Akins eligible | CLE | TEN | 1.0 | 0.5–2.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Ian Thomas eligible | LV | LA | 1.5 | 0.7–1.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Dalton Schultz eligible | HOU | NYG | 3.0 | 1.8–4.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Ray-Ray McCloud eligible | NYG | HOU | 0.5 | 0–1.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. eligible | MIA | NYJ | 0.5 | 0–1.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Mark Andrews eligible | BAL | CIN | 3.0 | 2.3–4.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Christian Kirk eligible | HOU | NYG | 1.0 | 1–2.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Durham Smythe eligible | BAL | CIN | 1.0 | 0–0.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Mike Gesicki eligible | CIN | BAL | 2.0 | 1–3.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Calvin Ridley eligible | TEN | CLE | 1.5 | 0.8–2.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Dante Pettis eligible | NO | PIT | 0.5 | 0–1.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Foster Moreau eligible | HOU | NYG | 1.0 | 1–2.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| T.J. Hockenson eligible | MIN | IND | 4.0 | 1.9–5.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Josh Oliver eligible | MIN | IND | 1.5 | 1–2 | — | — | — | — | |
| David Sills eligible | ATL | SF | 0.5 | 0.4–1.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey eligible | DEN | ARI | 1.0 | 0.8–1.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Drew Sample eligible | CIN | BAL | 1.0 | 0.6–2.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Marquise Brown eligible | PHI | DAL | 0.5 | 0.4–1.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. eligible | SF | ATL | 2.5 | 1.2–4.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Isaiah Hodgins eligible | NYG | HOU | 1.0 | 0.3–1.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Kristian Wilkerson eligible | LV | LA | 1.0 | 0.6–2.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Colby Parkinson eligible | LA | LV | 2.0 | 1–3.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Michael Pittman eligible | PIT | NO | 2.5 | 1.5–4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jauan Jennings eligible | MIN | IND | 1.0 | 0.4–1.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Darnell Mooney eligible | NYG | HOU | 1.5 | 0.8–1.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jerry Jeudy eligible | CLE | TEN | 2.0 | 1.3–3.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Van Jefferson eligible | TEN | CLE | 0.5 | 0.4–2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Adam Trautman eligible | DEN | ARI | 1.0 | 0.7–1.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Albert Okwuegbunam eligible | LV | LA | 1.0 | 0.2–1.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tyler Johnson eligible | NYJ | MIA | 1.0 | 0.6–1.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Charlie Woerner eligible | ATL | SF | 1.0 | 0.5–1.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Noah Gray eligible | KC | SEA | 2.0 | 0.9–2.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Brock Wright eligible | DET | GB | 1.0 | 0.6–1.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Brandon Smith eligible | PIT | NO | 1.0 | 0.1–1.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Luke Farrell eligible | SF | ATL | 1.0 | 0–1.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Pat Freiermuth eligible | PIT | NO | 2.5 | 1.4–4.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Kyle Pitts eligible | ATL | SF | 3.0 | 1.3–4.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tommy Tremble eligible | CAR | TB | 2.5 | 1.1–3.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jake Tonges eligible | SF | ATL | 1.5 | 1–2.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Kevin Austin Jr. eligible | NO | PIT | 1.5 | 0.7–2.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Greg Dulcich eligible | MIA | NYJ | 3.0 | 1.6–4.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| David Bell eligible | CLE | TEN | 1.0 | 0.5–2.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Teagan Quitoriano eligible | ARI | DEN | 1.0 | 0–1.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jalen Nailor eligible | LV | LA | 1.5 | 1–2.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Mike Woods eligible | CLE | TEN | 0.5 | 0–1.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| John FitzPatrick eligible | GB | DET | 1.0 | 0.6–1.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Brandon Johnson eligible | PIT | NO | 1.0 | 0.4–1.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Lucas Krull eligible | DEN | ARI | 1.0 | 0.2–1.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Alec Pierce eligible | IND | MIN | 2.0 | 1.2–3.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Trey McBride eligible | ARI | DEN | 6.0 | 4.2–7.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jeremy Ruckert eligible | NYJ | MIA | 2.0 | 0.9–2.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Romeo Doubs eligible | NE | CHI | 2.0 | 1–3.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Isaiah Likely eligible | NYG | HOU | 4.5 | 3–5.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jake Ferguson eligible | DAL | PHI | 2.0 | 1.1–3.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tyquan Thornton eligible | KC | SEA | 1.5 | 0.9–3.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Daniel Bellinger eligible | TEN | CLE | 1.0 | 0.5–1.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Cade Otton eligible | TB | CAR | 3.5 | 2–4.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Dontayvion Wicks eligible | PHI | DAL | 3.0 | 1.5–4.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Darnell Washington eligible | PIT | NO | 3.0 | 1.3–3.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Josh Whyle eligible | GB | DET | 1.0 | 0.7–1.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Kayshon Boutte eligible | HOU | NYG | 2.0 | 1.1–3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Xavier Hutchinson eligible | HOU | NYG | 2.5 | 1.4–4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Andrei Iosivas eligible | CIN | BAL | 1.0 | 0.5–1.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Julian Hill eligible | MIA | NYJ | 1.0 | 0.3–1.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jared Wayne eligible | HOU | NYG | 1.0 | 0.6–1.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Mitchell Tinsley eligible | CIN | BAL | 1.0 | 0.6–2.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Brycen Tremayne eligible | CAR | TB | 1.5 | 0.5–2.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Cedric Tillman eligible | CLE | TEN | 1.0 | 0.6–1.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Elijah Higgins eligible | ARI | DEN | 1.5 | 0.9–2.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Michael Mayer eligible | LV | LA | 4.0 | 2.4–5.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Davis Allen eligible | LA | LV | 1.0 | 0.4–1.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Luke Musgrave eligible | GB | DET | 1.0 | 0.7–2.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jayden Reed eligible | GB | DET | 1.5 | 1.2–2.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Johnny Wilson eligible | PHI | DAL | 0.5 | 0.2–1.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Brock Bowers eligible | LV | LA | 6.0 | 3.8–7.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Xavier Legette eligible | CAR | TB | 1.0 | 0.7–2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders eligible | CAR | TB | 1.0 | 0.1–1.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jamari Thrash eligible | CLE | TEN | 0.5 | 0.1–1.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Bub Means eligible | NO | PIT | 1.0 | 0.2–1.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Ryan Flournoy eligible | DAL | PHI | 3.0 | 1.9–4.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Isaiah Williams eligible | NYJ | MIA | 2.0 | 1–2.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Brenden Bates eligible | CLE | TEN | 0.5 | 0–1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Xavier Weaver eligible | ARI | DEN | 0.5 | 0.1–1.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Mason Tipton eligible | NO | PIT | 0.5 | 0.1–1.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tip Reiman eligible | ARI | DEN | 1.0 | 0–1.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Roman Wilson eligible | PIT | NO | 1.5 | 0.9–3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Devontez Walker eligible | BAL | CIN | 1.0 | 0.8–2.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. eligible | HOU | NYG | 1.5 | 0.8–2.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jalen McMillan eligible | TB | CAR | 1.0 | 0.4–2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Ricky Pearsall eligible | SF | ATL | 1.5 | 1.1–2.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Darius Cooper eligible | PHI | DAL | 1.5 | 0.9–2.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tyler Warren eligible | IND | MIN | 4.5 | 2.8–6.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jayden Higgins eligible | HOU | NYG | 1.0 | 0.9–2.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Pat Bryant eligible | DEN | ARI | 2.0 | 1–2.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jaylin Noel eligible | HOU | NYG | 2.0 | 1.2–3.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Tai Felton eligible | MIN | IND | 1.0 | 0.5–1.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Elic Ayomanor eligible | TEN | CLE | 1.5 | 0.9–2.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Mitchell Evans eligible | CAR | TB | 1.0 | 0.5–2.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Gavin Bartholomew eligible | MIN | IND | 2.0 | 0.9–4.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Moliki Matavao eligible | NO | PIT | 1.0 | 0.3–1.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Andrew Armstrong eligible | KC | SEA | 1.0 | 0.6–1.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jakobie Keeney-James eligible | GB | DET | 2.0 | 0.9–4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Gunnar Helm eligible | TEN | CLE | 1.5 | 1–3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Efton Chism III eligible | NE | CHI | 1.5 | 0.9–2.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Konata Mumpfield eligible | LA | LV | 1.5 | 0.9–3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Mark Redman eligible | GB | DET | 1.5 | 1–2.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Drake Dabney eligible | GB | DET | 1.5 | 1.1–2.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jalen Royals eligible | KC | SEA | 1.0 | 0.6–1.8 | — | — | — | — | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. eligible | CLE | TEN | 3.0 | 1.5–4.5 | — | — | — | — | |
| Jack Bech eligible | LV | LA | 1.5 | 0.9–2.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Mason Taylor eligible | NYJ | MIA | 3.0 | 1.4–4.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Terrance Ferguson eligible | LA | LV | 2.0 | 1–2.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Dohnte Meyers eligible | CIN | BAL | 2.0 | 0.9–2.9 | — | — | — | — | |
| Ja'Kobi Lane eligible | BAL | CIN | 1.5 | 0.9–3.6 | — | — | — | — | |
| Matthew Hibner eligible | BAL | CIN | 1.5 | 1–2.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Kenyon Sadiq eligible | NYJ | MIA | 2.0 | 1.1–3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Malachi Fields eligible | NYG | HOU | 1.5 | 0.7–3.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Ted Hurst III eligible | TB | CAR | 1.5 | 1–3.3 | — | — | — | — | |
| Bryce Lance eligible | NO | PIT | 1.0 | 0.4–1.1 | — | — | — | — | |
| Omar Cooper Jr. eligible | NYJ | MIA | 2.5 | 1.5–4.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Caleb Douglas eligible | MIA | NYJ | 3.5 | 2–4.2 | — | — | — | — | |
| Will Kacmarek eligible | MIA | NYJ | 1.0 | 0.4–1.7 | — | — | — | — | |
| Chris Bell eligible | MIA | NYJ | 1.0 | 0.7–2.4 | — | — | — | — | |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. eligible | MIA | NYJ | 1.0 | 0.5–1.8 | — | — | — | — |
Methodology. A LightGBM quantile model (q10–q90) trained on nflverse
player-game data since 2021 projects each receiver's yardage and receptions distribution from
role (target/air-yards share, snaps, depth chart, injuries), team tendencies (pass rate over
expected, pace), opponent pass defense (EPA, pressure), and game environment (Vegas totals,
spread, venue). Quantiles become a full probability curve, calibrated against three seasons of
real closing lines, so P(over) is priced for the actual book line. Edges compare our
probability to the de-vigged sharp market; validation is strictly walk-forward (the model
never sees the week it predicts). Predictions freeze when published and grade automatically
after games — history and CLV are tracked on every flagged edge.