NFL Week 7
1:21 - 4th
NE50.521
CHI-330
SUN · 8:30 AM
PIT-3.54-2
NO44.52-4
SUN · 12:00 PM
CIN-1.53-2
BAL48.54-2
SUN · 12:00 PM
CLE-1.54-2
TEN37.51-5
SUN · 12:00 PM
IND41.52-4
MIN-6.55-0
SUN · 12:00 PM
MIA39.50-5
NYJ-4.52-4
SUN · 12:00 PM1 Pick
NYG42.53-2-1
HOU-10.52-4
SUN · 12:00 PM2 Picks
SF-36-0
ATL49.52-4
SUN · 12:00 PM
TB44.51-5
CAR-33-2
SUN · 3:05 PM
DEN-4.54-2
ARI43.52-4
SUN · 3:25 PM1 Pick
GB53.54-2
DET-33-2
SUN · 3:25 PM
LA-4.52-4
LV48.53-3
SUN · 7:20 PM
KC42.55-0
SEA-2.53-3
MON · 7:15 PM
DAL-4.52-4
PHI44.52-4
← Models / Rush Attempts — Best Bets Record

Best Bets Record

← Rush Attempts Model · Backtest

How the Record Is Kept

What counts as a pick

A player qualifies when the model's chance of going over his Hard Rock rush-attempts line differs from Hard Rock's de-vigged price by 10+ points, unless he is Questionable/Doubtful/Out, has no NFL history, practiced limited with no game status yet, or a teammate the model expects to play has no line. The three qualifiers the model is most confident about each week are the ★ Top 3. Picks are re-checked hourly and lock at kickoff with the line and price showing at that time. A player who stopped qualifying before kickoff is not a pick.

Grading

Official rushing attempts (nflverse box score). Win/loss vs the locked line; a whole-number line that lands exactly is a push; a player with no box-score line is a void, as at the book. Units are 1 unit flat at the locked Hard Rock price, so a win at −115 pays +0.87u.

Backtest rows

The same rule replayed on 2023+ closing lines with the model's out-of-sample projections (each game predicted only from earlier data). The injury-news guards cannot be replayed there, because the history only contains players who played. "All books" uses the consensus close; Hard Rock exists from 2025.

All seasons 2026

★ Top 3 (live)

Record4-2
Units+1.21u
ROI+20.1%
Hit66.7%
Unders 4-2 +1.21u · Overs 0-0 +0.00u · RB 4-1 · QB 0-1
0 void · 3 pending
Backtest (same rule): Hard Rock 2025+ 29-21 +3.9u (+7.8%)  all books 2023+ 123-93 +9.4u (+4.3%) 

All qualifiers (live)

Record21-15
Units+3.01u
ROI+8.4%
Hit58.3%
Unders 20-13 +4.21u · Overs 1-2 -1.20u · RB 17-9 · QB 4-6
1 void · 3 pending
Backtest (same rule): Hard Rock 2025+ 205-145 +33.3u (+9.5%)  all books 2023+ 1134-926 +77.5u (+3.8%) 

Week by week

Week★ Top 3UnitsAll qualifiersUnitsPending
2026 wk 7 0-0+0.00u 0-0+0.00u 3
2026 wk 6 2-1+0.54u 8-9-2.30u
2026 wk 5 2-1+0.67u 13-6+5.31u

Pick log

All qualifiers (40) ★ Top 3 only (9)
WeekPlayerGamePickPriceModelMarketEdgeProjActualResultUnits
2026 wk 7 ★ Kendre Miller RB NO vs PIT Sun Oct 25, 8:30 AM CT U 12.5 -125 70% 52% +18 10.4 — PENDING
2026 wk 7 ★ Caleb Williams QB CHI vs NE Thu Oct 22, 7:15 PM CT O 3.5 -140 68% 54% +13 5.3 — PENDING
2026 wk 7 ★ Rhamondre Stevenson RB NE vs CHI Thu Oct 22, 7:15 PM CT U 10.5 -105 63% 48% +15 9.6 — PENDING
2026 wk 6 ★ Tyler Allgeier RB ARI vs LA Sun Oct 18, 3:05 PM CT U 12.5 +100 79% 47% +32 8.7 18 LOSS -1.00u
2026 wk 6 ★ Rhamondre Stevenson RB NE vs NYJ Sun Oct 18, 12:00 PM CT U 14.5 -130 74% 53% +21 11.6 14 WIN +0.77u
2026 wk 6 ★ Emanuel Wilson RB SEA vs DEN Thu Oct 15, 7:15 PM CT U 18.5 -130 74% 53% +21 15.4 14 WIN +0.77u
2026 wk 5 ★ D'Andre Swift RB CHI vs GB Sun Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT U 19.5 -115 85% 50% +35 14.2 9 WIN +0.87u
2026 wk 5 ★ Tyler Huntley QB BAL vs ATL Sun Oct 11, 7:20 PM CT U 5.5 +100 76% 47% +29 4.0 6 LOSS -1.00u
2026 wk 5 ★ Kaleb Johnson RB GB vs CHI Sun Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT U 9.5 -125 72% 52% +20 7.4 7 WIN +0.80u

Backtest by season (same rule, 2023+ closing lines)

Out-of-sample model vs the close; injury-news guards cannot be replayed (history only holds players who played). Pushes excluded.

★ Top 3 per week

CloseSeasonnW-LHitUnitsROI
Hard Rock202532 19-13 59.4% +3.1u +9.6%
Hard Rock202618 10-8 55.6% +0.8u +4.6%
All books202366 43-23 65.2% +14.0u +21.2%
All books202466 31-35 47.0% -8.7u -13.2%
All books202566 35-31 53.0% -1.6u -2.4%
All books202618 14-4 77.8% +5.7u +31.5%

All qualifiers

CloseSeasonnW-LHitUnitsROI
Hard Rock2025164 99-65 60.4% +20.5u +12.5%
Hard Rock2026186 106-80 57.0% +12.9u +6.9%
All books2023509 269-240 52.8% -3.4u -0.7%
All books2024600 332-268 55.3% +23.6u +3.9%
All books2025708 399-309 56.4% +49.9u +7.1%
All books2026243 134-109 55.1% +7.3u +3.0%