NFL Week 7
THU · 7:15 PM
NE50.54-2
CHI-34-2
SUN · 8:30 AM
PIT-3.54-2
NO44.52-4
SUN · 12:00 PM
CIN-1.53-2
BAL48.54-2
SUN · 12:00 PM
CLE-1.54-2
TEN37.51-5
SUN · 12:00 PM
IND41.52-4
MIN-6.55-0
SUN · 12:00 PM
MIA39.50-5
NYJ-4.52-4
SUN · 12:00 PM1 Pick
NYG42.53-2-1
HOU-10.52-4
SUN · 12:00 PM2 Picks
SF-36-0
ATL49.52-4
SUN · 12:00 PM
TB44.51-5
CAR-33-2
SUN · 3:05 PM
DEN-4.54-2
ARI43.52-4
SUN · 3:25 PM1 Pick
GB53.54-2
DET-33-2
SUN · 3:25 PM
LA-4.52-4
LV48.53-3
SUN · 7:20 PM
KC42.55-0
SEA-2.53-3
MON · 7:15 PM
DAL-4.52-4
PHI44.52-4
← Models / WR Model

WR Model

Week 7, 2026 board

How the WR Model Works

What you're looking at

Each week our model projects a receiving-yards and receptions line for every team's WR1 and WR2 (plus other receivers who play at least 40% of snaps). "Our Line" is the model's median projection rounded to the nearest half point; "Range" is its 25th–75th percentile band.

The model

A LightGBM quantile ensemble trained on 2021-present player-game data: target and air-yards share, snap rates, depth-chart role, injuries, team pass-rate-over-expected and pace, opponent pass-defense EPA and pressure, Vegas totals/spreads, and Next Gen Stats separation metrics. The five quantile predictions form a full probability curve, so any sportsbook line can be priced as a calibrated P(over).

Edges and flags

"Book" is the sportsbook line we evaluated (Hard Rock when it posts one). "P(Over)" is the model's calibrated probability the player clears that line. "Edge" compares that to the de-vigged sharp-market consensus (Pinnacle preferred). The ⚑ flag marks plays where the edge is at least 4 points AND the sharp market leans the same way against Hard Rock's price.

Grading

After games finish, every prediction is graded against the evaluated line, and flagged edges get closing-line-value (CLV) tracking — how much the market moved toward or away from our number by kickoff, in probability terms. The performance strip shows the last four graded weeks.

Receiving Yards Receptions Showing all eligible
Flagged edges (last 4 graded wks)8-5
Hit rate61.5%
Mean CLV+2.59 pts
Player Team Opp Our Line Range (q25–q75) Book Book Line P(Over) Edge ⚑
A.J. Brown WR1 NE CHI 47.0 30.3–77 hardrockbet 69.5 48.1% -5.3 pts
DK Metcalf WR1 PIT NO 50.5 30.5–80.9 hardrockbet 53.5 48.8% -1.2 pts
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1 DET GB 71.0 42.3–90.3 hardrockbet 78.5 48.8% -1.2 pts
Chris Olave WR1 NO PIT 70.0 47.2–103.7 hardrockbet 76.5 48.8% -1.2 pts
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1 SEA KC 77.5 50.2–102.2 hardrockbet 92.5 48.8% -1.2 pts
Matthew Golden WR1 GB DET 62.0 38.5–87.6 hardrockbet 73.5 48.8% -1.2 pts
Luther Burden III WR1 CHI NE 47.5 25.5–68.4 hardrockbet 55.5 48.8% -1.2 pts
Keenan Allen WR1 IND MIN 37.5 21.6–61.7 — — — —
Mike Evans WR1 SF ATL 61.5 33–82.6 — — — —
Justin Jefferson WR1 MIN IND 68.5 33–91 — — — —
CeeDee Lamb WR1 DAL PHI 64.5 47.4–91.1 — — — —
Nico Collins WR1 HOU NYG 60.0 32.6–88.6 — — — —
Jaylen Waddle WR1 DEN ARI 40.0 25.3–66.5 — — — —
Ja'Marr Chase WR1 CIN BAL 61.5 37.1–90.7 — — — —
DeVonta Smith WR1 PHI DAL 55.5 36.7–82.2 — — — —
Drake London WR1 ATL SF 68.0 42.3–94.7 — — — —
Garrett Wilson WR1 NYJ MIA 58.0 35.7–82.6 — — — —
Michael Wilson WR1 ARI DEN 59.0 37.4–92.4 — — — —
Tre Tucker WR1 LV LA 43.5 22.9–65 — — — —
Zay Flowers WR1 BAL CIN 77.5 42.9–107.8 — — — —
Rashee Rice WR1 KC SEA 47.5 31.3–77.3 — — — —
Puka Nacua WR1 LA LV 71.5 50.4–99.9 — — — —
Malik Nabers WR1 NYG HOU 63.0 39.8–77.8 — — — —
Malik Washington WR1 MIA NYJ 40.0 23.1–64.4 — — — —
Tetairoa McMillan WR1 CAR TB 61.0 40.6–87.7 — — — —
Emeka Egbuka WR1 TB CAR 46.5 24–73.6 — — — —
Carnell Tate WR1 TEN CLE 56.0 33.8–74.5 — — — —
KC Concepcion WR1 CLE TEN 31.0 16.5–50.9 — — — —
Cooper Kupp WR2 SEA KC 28.5 13.9–48.8 hardrockbet 24.5 51.5% +2 pts
Rome Odunze WR2 CHI NE 43.0 22.3–70 hardrockbet 45.5 48.8% -1.7 pts
Devaughn Vele WR2 NO PIT 44.0 26.5–68.9 hardrockbet 41.5 51.5% +1.6 pts
Christian Watson WR2 GB DET 61.0 33.7–95.5 hardrockbet 73.5 48.8% -1.6 pts
Jameson Williams WR2 DET GB 52.5 20.8–67.7 hardrockbet 53.5 48.8% -1.2 pts
Germie Bernard WR2 PIT NO 36.0 18–63.5 hardrockbet 53.5 48.8% -1.2 pts
Davante Adams WR2 LA LV 61.0 31.2–82.6 — — — —
Tyreek Hill WR2 MIA NYJ 40.0 20.6–61.1 — — — —
Kendrick Bourne WR2 ARI DEN 25.5 10.3–47.7 — — — —
Mack Hollins WR2 NE CHI 40.0 21.3–64.4 — — — —
Courtland Sutton WR2 DEN ARI 29.0 10.6–52.5 — — — —
Darius Slayton WR2 NYG HOU 16.0 10.7–35.9 — — — —
Brandon Aiyuk WR2 SF ATL 42.0 17–53.5 — — — —
Tee Higgins WR2 CIN BAL 60.5 34.6–89.7 — — — —
Rashod Bateman WR2 BAL CIN 25.5 13.8–45.2 — — — —
George Pickens WR2 DAL PHI 53.0 29.2–76.2 — — — —
Jahan Dotson WR2 ATL SF 31.0 13.3–56 — — — —
Wan'Dale Robinson WR2 TEN CLE 38.0 25.8–61.6 — — — —
Tank Dell WR2 HOU NYG 28.5 15.6–48.5 — — — —
Jordan Addison WR2 MIN IND 40.5 16.2–64.8 — — — —
Josh Downs WR2 IND MIN 38.5 24.4–61.9 — — — —
Jalen Coker WR2 CAR TB 54.0 31.7–78 — — — —
Adonai Mitchell WR2 NYJ MIA 51.0 24.4–70.2 — — — —
Xavier Worthy WR2 KC SEA 36.5 19.9–52.8 — — — —
Makai Lemon WR2 PHI DAL 26.5 10.5–46.2 — — — —
Denzel Boston WR2 CLE TEN 50.0 25.2–77.6 — — — —
Isaac TeSlaa eligible DET GB 22.5 10.1–39.8 hardrockbet 23.5 48.8% -1.7 pts
Juwan Johnson eligible NO PIT 31.0 18.2–43 hardrockbet 32.5 48.8% -1.7 pts
Noah Fant eligible NO PIT 11.0 0.9–21.4 hardrockbet 11.5 48.8% -1.6 pts
Cole Kmet eligible CHI NE 11.0 1.6–18.6 hardrockbet 8.5 51.5% +1.5 pts
Tucker Kraft eligible GB DET 46.5 20.9–68.3 hardrockbet 42.5 51.5% +1.5 pts
Sam LaPorta eligible DET GB 54.5 29.1–70 hardrockbet 49.5 51.5% +1.5 pts
Kalif Raymond eligible CHI NE 24.0 13.6–40.4 hardrockbet 25.5 48.8% -1.2 pts
Hunter Henry eligible NE CHI 31.0 16–47.9 hardrockbet 34.5 48.8% -1.2 pts
DeMario Douglas eligible NE CHI 29.0 13.3–50.1 hardrockbet 33.5 48.8% -1.2 pts
AJ Barner eligible SEA KC 25.5 10.7–46.2 hardrockbet 25.5 48.8% -1.2 pts
Colston Loveland eligible CHI NE 42.0 20.6–61.8 hardrockbet 43.5 48.8% -1.2 pts
Eli Raridon eligible NE CHI 14.5 3.9–31 hardrockbet 13.5 48.8% -1.2 pts
Rashid Shaheed eligible SEA KC 22.0 6.8–42.6 hardrockbet 25.5 48.8% -0.8 pts
Adam Thielen eligible PIT NO 6.5 0.5–21.8 — — — —
Robert Woods eligible HOU NYG 5.5 0.1–17 — — — —
Travis Kelce eligible KC SEA 43.0 22.2–59 — — — —
Darren Waller eligible CAR TB 25.5 10–38.4 — — — —
Tyler Lockett eligible LV LA 9.5 0.6–21.9 — — — —
Sterling Shepard eligible NYJ MIA 12.5 1.6–19.4 — — — —
Chris Moore eligible BAL CIN 11.5 2.6–31.5 — — — —
Demarcus Robinson eligible SF ATL 23.5 10.6–40.7 — — — —
Laquon Treadwell eligible IND MIN 25.0 9.6–39.3 — — — —
Tyler Boyd eligible TEN CLE 6.0 0–23.7 — — — —
Tyler Higbee eligible LA LV 30.5 17.1–46.3 — — — —
Johnny Mundt eligible PHI DAL 5.5 1.5–16.8 — — — —
George Kittle eligible SF ATL 46.5 26.7–72 — — — —
Tim Patrick eligible NYJ MIA 20.5 4.8–32.1 — — — —
Anthony Firkser eligible DET GB 1.0 0–12.5 — — — —
JuJu Smith-Schuster eligible KC SEA 1.5 1.1–18.1 — — — —
Evan Engram eligible DEN ARI 16.5 6.9–43.7 — — — —
Zay Jones eligible ARI DEN 6.5 0.7–19.5 — — — —
Chris Godwin Jr. eligible TB CAR 33.5 18–54.1 — — — —
Josh Reynolds eligible NYJ MIA 21.5 1.9–45.8 — — — —
Dallas Goedert eligible PHI DAL 40.5 22.6–59.8 — — — —
Jordan Akins eligible CLE TEN 9.0 4.3–27.7 — — — —
Ian Thomas eligible LV LA 11.0 1.1–15.4 — — — —
Dalton Schultz eligible HOU NYG 32.5 14.7–48.3 — — — —
Ray-Ray McCloud eligible NYG HOU 0.5 0–8.1 — — — —
Cedrick Wilson Jr. eligible MIA NYJ 2.0 0–10.4 — — — —
Mark Andrews eligible BAL CIN 34.0 18.1–48.5 — — — —
Christian Kirk eligible HOU NYG 13.0 7–31.9 — — — —
Durham Smythe eligible BAL CIN 5.5 0.4–9.4 — — — —
Mike Gesicki eligible CIN BAL 21.5 8.6–47.3 — — — —
Calvin Ridley eligible TEN CLE 14.0 3.2–26.5 — — — —
Dante Pettis eligible NO PIT 1.0 0–13.3 — — — —
Foster Moreau eligible HOU NYG 13.5 2.7–26.2 — — — —
T.J. Hockenson eligible MIN IND 34.0 19.5–59.6 — — — —
Josh Oliver eligible MIN IND 11.5 5.4–23.5 — — — —
David Sills eligible ATL SF 10.0 0.7–26.6 — — — —
Lil'Jordan Humphrey eligible DEN ARI 10.0 2–27.3 — — — —
Drew Sample eligible CIN BAL 8.5 0.5–20.8 — — — —
Marquise Brown eligible PHI DAL 8.5 0–16.5 — — — —
Deebo Samuel Sr. eligible SF ATL 30.0 16.7–44.4 — — — —
Isaiah Hodgins eligible NYG HOU 2.5 1–14.1 — — — —
Kristian Wilkerson eligible LV LA 15.0 7.6–37.4 — — — —
Colby Parkinson eligible LA LV 19.0 6–34.7 — — — —
Michael Pittman eligible PIT NO 28.0 14.1–48.2 — — — —
Jauan Jennings eligible MIN IND 10.5 1.2–26.7 — — — —
Darnell Mooney eligible NYG HOU 12.5 3.5–18.4 — — — —
Jerry Jeudy eligible CLE TEN 24.5 11.1–46.4 — — — —
Van Jefferson eligible TEN CLE 11.0 0.9–28.2 — — — —
Adam Trautman eligible DEN ARI 9.0 2.3–17.7 — — — —
Albert Okwuegbunam eligible LV LA 6.5 0.3–18.9 — — — —
Tyler Johnson eligible NYJ MIA 9.0 0.1–15.8 — — — —
Charlie Woerner eligible ATL SF 7.0 0.4–17.7 — — — —
Noah Gray eligible KC SEA 17.0 8.1–30.9 — — — —
Brock Wright eligible DET GB 9.0 0.5–21.2 — — — —
Brandon Smith eligible PIT NO 6.0 0.4–10.8 — — — —
Luke Farrell eligible SF ATL 3.5 0.2–10 — — — —
Pat Freiermuth eligible PIT NO 30.5 12.6–48.5 — — — —
Kyle Pitts eligible ATL SF 29.0 15.9–50.5 — — — —
Tommy Tremble eligible CAR TB 19.0 9.5–35.7 — — — —
Jake Tonges eligible SF ATL 11.5 4.6–31.2 — — — —
Kevin Austin Jr. eligible NO PIT 11.5 4–27.4 — — — —
Greg Dulcich eligible MIA NYJ 29.5 15.1–42.5 — — — —
David Bell eligible CLE TEN 6.5 3.5–21.3 — — — —
Teagan Quitoriano eligible ARI DEN 5.5 0.3–10.6 — — — —
Jalen Nailor eligible LV LA 17.5 3.6–38.2 — — — —
Mike Woods eligible CLE TEN 1.5 0.1–15.9 — — — —
John FitzPatrick eligible GB DET 7.0 3–16.2 — — — —
Brandon Johnson eligible PIT NO 11.5 1–27.2 — — — —
Lucas Krull eligible DEN ARI 2.5 0–11.5 — — — —
Alec Pierce eligible IND MIN 29.5 16.3–49.4 — — — —
Trey McBride eligible ARI DEN 58.0 41–80.7 — — — —
Jeremy Ruckert eligible NYJ MIA 16.5 5–27.3 — — — —
Romeo Doubs eligible NE CHI 28.5 13.5–50.8 — — — —
Isaiah Likely eligible NYG HOU 47.0 32.6–74.1 — — — —
Jake Ferguson eligible DAL PHI 24.0 9.5–32.6 — — — —
Tyquan Thornton eligible KC SEA 29.0 12.5–47.8 — — — —
Daniel Bellinger eligible TEN CLE 7.5 0.8–17.4 — — — —
Cade Otton eligible TB CAR 34.5 16.9–52.3 — — — —
Dontayvion Wicks eligible PHI DAL 33.5 19.5–61.2 — — — —
Darnell Washington eligible PIT NO 24.0 13.2–37.9 — — — —
Josh Whyle eligible GB DET 6.0 3–18.4 — — — —
Kayshon Boutte eligible HOU NYG 23.0 7.3–38 — — — —
Xavier Hutchinson eligible HOU NYG 34.0 11.4–51.4 — — — —
Andrei Iosivas eligible CIN BAL 8.0 2.2–22.3 — — — —
Julian Hill eligible MIA NYJ 4.0 0–11.5 — — — —
Jared Wayne eligible HOU NYG 11.5 0.8–21.7 — — — —
Mitchell Tinsley eligible CIN BAL 13.5 3.3–32.9 — — — —
Brycen Tremayne eligible CAR TB 17.0 1.8–29.5 — — — —
Cedric Tillman eligible CLE TEN 6.5 1.5–22 — — — —
Elijah Higgins eligible ARI DEN 12.0 2.9–25.4 — — — —
Michael Mayer eligible LV LA 40.5 22–52.2 — — — —
Davis Allen eligible LA LV 5.5 0.4–13.5 — — — —
Luke Musgrave eligible GB DET 9.0 1.6–29.8 — — — —
Jayden Reed eligible GB DET 15.0 4.3–34.8 — — — —
Johnny Wilson eligible PHI DAL 7.5 0.4–18.3 — — — —
Brock Bowers eligible LV LA 72.0 42.1–99.5 — — — —
Xavier Legette eligible CAR TB 16.5 2.8–27.3 — — — —
Ja'Tavion Sanders eligible CAR TB 4.0 0–15.7 — — — —
Jamari Thrash eligible CLE TEN 1.0 0–15.5 — — — —
Bub Means eligible NO PIT 5.5 0.9–16.8 — — — —
Ryan Flournoy eligible DAL PHI 33.5 15.9–52.8 — — — —
Isaiah Williams eligible NYJ MIA 24.0 8.6–39.6 — — — —
Brenden Bates eligible CLE TEN 0.5 0.1–9 — — — —
Xavier Weaver eligible ARI DEN 1.0 0.1–13.5 — — — —
Mason Tipton eligible NO PIT 0.0 0.1–17.2 — — — —
Tip Reiman eligible ARI DEN 1.5 0.1–12.6 — — — —
Roman Wilson eligible PIT NO 26.0 7.1–44.1 — — — —
Devontez Walker eligible BAL CIN 13.5 1.3–34 — — — —
Marvin Harrison Jr. eligible HOU NYG 17.5 4.7–31.1 — — — —
Jalen McMillan eligible TB CAR 10.5 0.6–25 — — — —
Ricky Pearsall eligible SF ATL 20.5 11.4–38.5 — — — —
Darius Cooper eligible PHI DAL 25.5 7.9–43.3 — — — —
Tyler Warren eligible IND MIN 41.0 26.5–60.2 — — — —
Jayden Higgins eligible HOU NYG 22.0 12.9–38.8 — — — —
Pat Bryant eligible DEN ARI 24.0 8.1–33.8 — — — —
Jaylin Noel eligible HOU NYG 24.0 10–38.5 — — — —
Tai Felton eligible MIN IND 13.0 1.5–26.4 — — — —
Elic Ayomanor eligible TEN CLE 16.5 6.9–29.1 — — — —
Mitchell Evans eligible CAR TB 9.0 1.1–19.7 — — — —
Gavin Bartholomew eligible MIN IND 19.5 6.3–39.9 — — — —
Moliki Matavao eligible NO PIT 2.5 0–14.3 — — — —
Andrew Armstrong eligible KC SEA 8.0 3.3–27.4 — — — —
Jakobie Keeney-James eligible GB DET 32.0 6.4–62.6 — — — —
Gunnar Helm eligible TEN CLE 15.5 5.6–33.7 — — — —
Efton Chism III eligible NE CHI 15.5 3.8–25.8 — — — —
Konata Mumpfield eligible LA LV 19.5 4.7–30.7 — — — —
Mark Redman eligible GB DET 16.0 4.2–30.4 — — — —
Drake Dabney eligible GB DET 25.5 3.5–53.1 — — — —
Jalen Royals eligible KC SEA 7.5 0.6–21.1 — — — —
Harold Fannin Jr. eligible CLE TEN 32.5 12.8–57.2 — — — —
Jack Bech eligible LV LA 14.0 3.3–27 — — — —
Mason Taylor eligible NYJ MIA 27.5 13.3–48.2 — — — —
Terrance Ferguson eligible LA LV 13.5 3.1–29.1 — — — —
Dohnte Meyers eligible CIN BAL 13.5 5.7–30.9 — — — —
Ja'Kobi Lane eligible BAL CIN 24.0 9–42 — — — —
Matthew Hibner eligible BAL CIN 15.0 3.8–25.7 — — — —
Kenyon Sadiq eligible NYJ MIA 18.5 5.9–39 — — — —
Malachi Fields eligible NYG HOU 21.5 8.3–36.7 — — — —
Ted Hurst III eligible TB CAR 23.0 8.7–47.1 — — — —
Bryce Lance eligible NO PIT 10.5 2.4–26.5 — — — —
Omar Cooper Jr. eligible NYJ MIA 32.5 14–52.9 — — — —
Caleb Douglas eligible MIA NYJ 38.5 19.3–59.8 — — — —
Will Kacmarek eligible MIA NYJ 6.0 0.4–16.3 — — — —
Chris Bell eligible MIA NYJ 17.0 4.5–33.4 — — — —
Kevin Coleman Jr. eligible MIA NYJ 9.5 0.5–35.1 — — — —
Methodology. A LightGBM quantile model (q10–q90) trained on nflverse player-game data since 2021 projects each receiver's yardage and receptions distribution from role (target/air-yards share, snaps, depth chart, injuries), team tendencies (pass rate over expected, pace), opponent pass defense (EPA, pressure), and game environment (Vegas totals, spread, venue). Quantiles become a full probability curve, calibrated against three seasons of real closing lines, so P(over) is priced for the actual book line. Edges compare our probability to the de-vigged sharp market; validation is strictly walk-forward (the model never sees the week it predicts). Predictions freeze when published and grade automatically after games — history and CLV are tracked on every flagged edge.