WR Model

Week 1, 2026 board

How the WR Model Works

What you're looking at

Each week our model projects a receiving-yards and receptions line for every team's WR1 and WR2 (plus other receivers who play at least 40% of snaps). "Our Line" is the model's median projection rounded to the nearest half point; "Range" is its 25th–75th percentile band.

The model

A LightGBM quantile ensemble trained on 2021-present player-game data: target and air-yards share, snap rates, depth-chart role, injuries, team pass-rate-over-expected and pace, opponent pass-defense EPA and pressure, Vegas totals/spreads, and Next Gen Stats separation metrics. The five quantile predictions form a full probability curve, so any sportsbook line can be priced as a calibrated P(over).

Edges and flags

"Book" is the sportsbook line we evaluated (Hard Rock when it posts one). "P(Over)" is the model's calibrated probability the player clears that line. "Edge" compares that to the de-vigged sharp-market consensus (Pinnacle preferred). The ⚑ flag marks plays where the edge is at least 4 points AND the sharp market leans the same way against Hard Rock's price.

Grading

After games finish, every prediction is graded against the evaluated line, and flagged edges get closing-line-value (CLV) tracking — how much the market moved toward or away from our number by kickoff, in probability terms. The performance strip shows the last four graded weeks.

Receiving Yards Receptions Showing all eligible
Player Team Opp Our Line Range (q25–q75) Book Book Line P(Over) Edge ⚑
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1 SEA NE 59.5 38.6–78.8 draftkings 85.5 47.6% -2.6 pts
Puka Nacua WR1 LA SF 64.5 43.9–95.4 draftkings 91.5 47.6% -2.4 pts
A.J. Brown WR1 PHI WAS 58.0 36.2–81.8 draftkings 59.5 50.1% -0.2 pts
Keenan Allen WR1 LAC ARI 27.0 7.7–41.6 — — — —
Mack Hollins WR1 NE SEA 36.0 19.1–58.1 — — — —
Courtland Sutton WR1 DEN KC 42.5 24.2–63.9 — — — —
DK Metcalf WR1 PIT ATL 47.5 26.9–63.9 — — — —
Terry McLaurin WR1 WAS PHI 43.5 25.9–62.4 — — — —
Brandon Aiyuk WR1 SF LA 38.0 18–60.2 — — — —
Justin Jefferson WR1 MIN GB 54.0 28.2–70.2 — — — —
Jerry Jeudy WR1 CLE JAX 32.0 17.9–49.4 — — — —
Nico Collins WR1 HOU BUF 44.5 24.4–76.1 — — — —
Jaylen Waddle WR1 MIA LV 34.0 18.2–54.4 — — — —
Ja'Marr Chase WR1 CIN TB 62.5 43.4–90.8 — — — —
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1 DET NO 63.5 43–100.3 — — — —
Drake London WR1 ATL PIT 46.0 32.7–67.1 — — — —
Chris Olave WR1 NO DET 62.0 38.6–83.7 — — — —
George Pickens WR1 DAL NYG 46.5 22.5–78 — — — —
Khalil Shakir WR1 BUF HOU 36.5 18–58.1 — — — —
Garrett Wilson WR1 NYJ TEN 42.5 25–59.2 — — — —
Wan'Dale Robinson WR1 NYG DAL 54.5 34.8–75.6 — — — —
Christian Watson WR1 GB MIN 39.5 19.4–66.9 — — — —
Michael Wilson WR1 ARI LAC 52.0 34.4–77.1 — — — —
Tre Tucker WR1 LV MIA 35.5 15.9–51.2 — — — —
Parker Washington WR1 JAX CLE 47.0 29.8–70.7 — — — —
Josh Downs WR1 IND BAL 21.5 9–40.7 — — — —
Zay Flowers WR1 BAL IND 54.0 31–80.1 — — — —
Rashee Rice WR1 KC DEN 53.0 34.2–64.3 — — — —
Rome Odunze WR1 CHI CAR 35.5 18.1–61 — — — —
Tetairoa McMillan WR1 CAR CHI 48.5 26–66.9 — — — —
Elic Ayomanor WR1 TEN NYJ 25.0 6.4–51 — — — —
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR2 WAS PHI 29.0 14.8–43.5 draftkings 30.5 50.1% -0.4 pts
Romeo Doubs WR2 GB MIN 33.0 15.9–48.2 draftkings 33.5 50.1% +0.3 pts
Mike Evans WR2 TB CIN 46.0 24.2–69.1 draftkings 47.5 50.1% +0.1 pts
Cooper Kupp WR2 SEA NE 30.0 11.9–45 draftkings 28.5 50.1% +0.1 pts
DeAndre Hopkins WR2 BAL IND 13.5 0.5–27.7 — — — —
Davante Adams WR2 LA SF 38.0 21.6–73.2 — — — —
Amari Cooper WR2 BUF HOU 15.5 1.2–26.8 — — — —
Stefon Diggs WR2 NE SEA 26.0 12.1–43.1 — — — —
Tyreek Hill WR2 MIA LV 44.5 25.4–62.1 — — — —
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR2 PIT ATL 14.5 0.9–25.3 — — — —
Jakobi Meyers WR2 JAX CLE 37.0 16.1–47.3 — — — —
Michael Pittman WR2 IND BAL 25.0 8.9–45.2 — — — —
Jauan Jennings WR2 SF LA 26.5 13.1–44.4 — — — —
Darnell Mooney WR2 ATL PIT 20.5 7.8–42.5 — — — —
CeeDee Lamb WR2 DAL NYG 49.5 25.2–71.1 — — — —
Tee Higgins WR2 CIN TB 39.0 20.7–66.8 — — — —
DeVonta Smith WR2 PHI WAS 42.5 21.2–62.8 — — — —
Jameson Williams WR2 DET NO 46.5 23.3–74.9 — — — —
Quentin Johnston WR2 LAC ARI 32.0 17.3–55.4 — — — —
Xavier Hutchinson WR2 HOU BUF 19.5 6.9–37.5 — — — —
Marvin Mims Jr. WR2 DEN KC 14.5 3.5–29.7 — — — —
Jordan Addison WR2 MIN GB 23.5 5.6–43 — — — —
Malik Nabers WR2 NYG DAL 60.0 36.3–80.7 — — — —
Devaughn Vele WR2 NO DET 27.5 13.8–40.5 — — — —
Jalen Coker WR2 CAR CHI 34.5 19.4–54 — — — —
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR2 ARI LAC 25.0 13.8–42.9 — — — —
Adonai Mitchell WR2 NYJ TEN 36.0 14.8–49.8 — — — —
Xavier Worthy WR2 KC DEN 22.5 8.3–39.5 — — — —
Chimere Dike WR2 TEN NYJ 18.5 6.5–45.5 — — — —
Luther Burden III WR2 CHI CAR 31.0 14.7–55.6 — — — —
AJ Barner eligible SEA NE 18.5 7.7–35.3 draftkings 24.5 47.6% -3.2 pts
Rashid Shaheed eligible SEA NE 15.0 0.3–26.9 draftkings 31.5 47.6% -2.2 pts
Adam Thielen eligible PIT ATL 10.0 0.2–24.8 — — — —
Zach Ertz eligible WAS PHI 40.5 22.9–58.9 — — — —
Robert Woods eligible HOU BUF 8.5 0–20.5 — — — —
Travis Kelce eligible KC DEN 37.0 15.9–49.8 — — — —
Brandin Cooks eligible BUF HOU 17.5 2.1–36.7 — — — —
Darren Waller eligible MIA LV 16.5 2.5–38.1 — — — —
Tyler Lockett eligible LV MIA 11.5 0.2–21.5 — — — —
Sterling Shepard eligible TB CIN 9.5 1.3–28.6 — — — —
Austin Hooper eligible NE SEA 9.5 0–12.1 — — — —
Demarcus Robinson eligible SF LA 11.5 1.1–29.8 — — — —
Tyler Boyd eligible TEN NYJ 11.0 0–23 — — — —
Hunter Henry eligible NE SEA 23.5 10.1–41.3 — — — —
Johnny Mundt eligible JAX CLE 8.0 1.1–17.3 — — — —
Curtis Samuel eligible BUF HOU 5.5 0–18 — — — —
George Kittle eligible SF LA 45.5 23.5–68.6 — — — —
Kendrick Bourne eligible SF LA 7.0 0–14.8 — — — —
Anthony Firkser eligible DET NO 3.0 0–12.6 — — — —
Eric Saubert eligible SEA NE 4.0 0.2–11.2 — — — —
David Moore eligible CAR CHI 6.0 0.6–16.3 — — — —
Noah Brown eligible WAS PHI 12.5 0–26 — — — —
JuJu Smith-Schuster eligible KC DEN 9.0 1.7–23 — — — —
Jonnu Smith eligible PIT ATL 10.5 0.2–22.6 — — — —
David Njoku eligible CLE JAX 13.0 1.5–18.6 — — — —
Zay Jones eligible ARI LAC 10.0 0–25.9 — — — —
Chris Godwin Jr. eligible TB CIN 26.0 12.6–45.7 — — — —
Josh Reynolds eligible NYJ TEN 19.0 1.9–36.7 — — — —
Dallas Goedert eligible PHI WAS 35.5 15.4–47.1 — — — —
Jordan Akins eligible CLE JAX 15.0 2.6–28.8 — — — —
Ian Thomas eligible LV MIA 6.5 2.4–19.2 — — — —
Dalton Schultz eligible HOU BUF 22.5 11–39.8 — — — —
Ray-Ray McCloud eligible NYG DAL 5.0 0–13.4 — — — —
Cedrick Wilson Jr. eligible MIA LV 5.0 0–20.6 — — — —
Mark Andrews eligible BAL IND 25.5 7.9–44.5 — — — —
Christian Kirk eligible HOU BUF 15.0 4.2–35.2 — — — —
DJ Moore eligible CHI CAR 30.5 15–45.1 — — — —
Mike Gesicki eligible CIN TB 17.0 3.3–36.6 — — — —
Dante Pettis eligible NO DET 5.0 0.5–23 — — — —
Olamide Zaccheaus eligible CHI CAR 10.0 0–20.3 — — — —
T.J. Hockenson eligible MIN GB 23.5 8.6–41.8 — — — —
Josh Oliver eligible MIN GB 12.5 1.4–26.6 — — — —
David Sills eligible ATL PIT 14.5 1.2–29.5 — — — —
Lil'Jordan Humphrey eligible DEN KC 11.0 0–21.7 — — — —
Greg Dortch eligible ARI LAC 8.0 0.8–23.9 — — — —
Darius Slayton eligible NYG DAL 26.0 10.3–47.6 — — — —
Drew Sample eligible CIN TB 8.0 1.3–21.8 — — — —
Marquise Brown eligible KC DEN 15.5 1.4–40.2 — — — —
Dawson Knox eligible BUF HOU 15.0 2.5–27.6 — — — —
Juwan Johnson eligible NO DET 36.0 20.6–47.7 — — — —
Isaiah Hodgins eligible NYG DAL 8.5 0.7–23.5 — — — —
Kristian Wilkerson eligible LV MIA 24.0 7.3–43.8 — — — —
Gabe Davis eligible BUF HOU 12.0 0–25.1 — — — —
Colby Parkinson eligible LA SF 28.5 14.5–46.6 — — — —
Cole Kmet eligible CHI CAR 12.5 1.3–22.3 — — — —
Van Jefferson eligible TEN NYJ 17.0 0–36.7 — — — —
Adam Trautman eligible DEN KC 11.5 1.8–24 — — — —
Albert Okwuegbunam eligible LV MIA 10.0 0.1–21.4 — — — —
Tyler Johnson eligible NYJ TEN 8.0 0–16.9 — — — —
Charlie Woerner eligible ATL PIT 6.5 0.8–19.8 — — — —
Rashod Bateman eligible BAL IND 12.0 1.6–26.5 — — — —
Brevin Jordan eligible HOU BUF 5.5 0.4–10.9 — — — —
John Bates eligible WAS PHI 8.5 0.5–19.2 — — — —
Noah Gray eligible KC DEN 13.0 1.2–24.6 — — — —
Brock Wright eligible DET NO 12.5 1.3–22.2 — — — —
Pat Freiermuth eligible PIT ATL 19.5 8.3–38.3 — — — —
Kyle Pitts eligible ATL PIT 45.5 27.7–68.6 — — — —
Josh Palmer eligible BUF HOU 10.0 0–23.4 — — — —
Hunter Long eligible JAX CLE 9.0 1.2–20.9 — — — —
Tommy Tremble eligible CAR CHI 18.5 5–36.6 — — — —
Jake Tonges eligible SF LA 16.5 3.7–33 — — — —
Kevin Austin Jr. eligible NO DET 12.5 4.1–30.8 — — — —
David Bell eligible CLE JAX 16.5 1.7–24.8 — — — —
Teagan Quitoriano eligible ATL PIT 3.5 0–10.5 — — — —
Jalen Nailor eligible MIN GB 14.5 0.7–31.5 — — — —
Mike Woods eligible CLE JAX 9.5 0.3–22.8 — — — —
John FitzPatrick eligible GB MIN 8.0 0.9–15.5 — — — —
Brandon Johnson eligible PIT ATL 10.5 0.8–23.4 — — — —
Lucas Krull eligible DEN KC 6.5 0–16.7 — — — —
John Metchie III eligible NYJ TEN 17.5 9.9–42.6 — — — —
Alec Pierce eligible IND BAL 37.0 20.9–61.8 — — — —
Jahan Dotson eligible PHI WAS 13.5 1.3–24.2 — — — —
Treylon Burks eligible WAS PHI 16.0 0.8–34.3 — — — —
Trey McBride eligible ARI LAC 54.0 37.9–73.3 — — — —
Jelani Woods eligible NYJ TEN 7.0 0–18 — — — —
Jeremy Ruckert eligible NYJ TEN 8.0 0.5–22.2 — — — —
Chig Okonkwo eligible TEN NYJ 23.0 6.6–41.5 — — — —
Isaiah Likely eligible BAL IND 21.5 4.8–41.6 — — — —
Jake Ferguson eligible DAL NYG 18.5 4.6–36.5 — — — —
Charlie Kolar eligible BAL IND 3.5 3–15.8 — — — —
Daniel Bellinger eligible NYG DAL 13.5 1.2–26.3 — — — —
Cade Otton eligible TB CIN 35.0 17–53.6 — — — —
Darnell Washington eligible PIT ATL 12.0 0.5–23.7 — — — —
Josh Whyle eligible GB MIN 7.5 0.3–16.4 — — — —
Kayshon Boutte eligible NE SEA 19.0 7.2–41 — — — —
Andrei Iosivas eligible CIN TB 13.5 1.3–31.7 — — — —
Tyrell Shavers eligible BUF HOU 10.0 0.1–23.7 — — — —
Blake Whiteheart eligible CLE JAX 3.0 0–11.3 — — — —
Julian Hill eligible MIA LV 5.5 0–20.2 — — — —
Mitchell Tinsley eligible CIN TB 10.0 0–26.3 — — — —
Brenton Strange eligible JAX CLE 28.5 11.9–43 — — — —
Tank Dell eligible HOU BUF 25.0 15.8–49.6 — — — —
Cedric Tillman eligible CLE JAX 10.5 1.2–29.6 — — — —
Tucker Kraft eligible GB MIN 40.0 18.1–47.9 — — — —
Elijah Higgins eligible ARI LAC 7.5 0.5–31.1 — — — —
Sam LaPorta eligible DET NO 37.0 19.4–55.3 — — — —
Michael Mayer eligible LV MIA 17.0 5.9–36.8 — — — —
Davis Allen eligible LA SF 9.0 1–23 — — — —
Luke Musgrave eligible GB MIN 12.5 1.8–25.3 — — — —
Jayden Reed eligible GB MIN 20.0 10.4–30.9 — — — —
Johnny Wilson eligible PHI WAS 5.5 0–21.5 — — — —
Brock Bowers eligible LV MIA 43.0 21.9–67.3 — — — —
Xavier Legette eligible CAR CHI 13.5 0–24.4 — — — —
Ja'Tavion Sanders eligible CAR CHI 7.0 0.2–17.7 — — — —
Cade Stover eligible HOU BUF 8.0 0–22.3 — — — —
Jamari Thrash eligible CLE JAX 8.5 1.4–21.7 — — — —
Bub Means eligible NO DET 13.5 0.2–25.4 — — — —
Ryan Flournoy eligible DAL NYG 22.5 11.7–36.1 — — — —
Isaiah Williams eligible NYJ TEN 15.0 4.4–33.3 — — — —
Brenden Bates eligible CLE JAX 2.5 0.2–10.8 — — — —
Xavier Weaver eligible ARI LAC 6.0 0–25.1 — — — —
Mason Tipton eligible NO DET 8.5 0.9–25.4 — — — —
Tip Reiman eligible ARI LAC 8.5 0.7–16.5 — — — —
Roman Wilson eligible PIT ATL 9.5 0–21.3 — — — —
Theo Johnson eligible NYG DAL 28.5 13.3–46.7 — — — —
Jalen McMillan eligible TB CIN 20.0 8.1–35.3 — — — —
Troy Franklin eligible DEN KC 13.0 2.7–29 — — — —
Malik Washington eligible MIA LV 19.0 4.4–37.4 — — — —
Brian Thomas Jr. eligible JAX CLE 27.5 14.4–46.1 — — — —
Keon Coleman eligible BUF HOU 10.0 0–21.7 — — — —
Ben Sinnott eligible WAS PHI 9.5 0–24.9 — — — —
Ladd McConkey eligible LAC ARI 29.5 12.3–53.3 — — — —
Ricky Pearsall eligible SF LA 28.0 11.9–42.5 — — — —
Darius Cooper eligible PHI WAS 4.5 0–17.7 — — — —
Colston Loveland eligible CHI CAR 51.5 31.9–70.6 — — — —
Tyler Warren eligible IND BAL 36.0 16.6–49.2 — — — —
Emeka Egbuka eligible TB CIN 33.0 12.7–64.8 — — — —
Jayden Higgins eligible HOU BUF 28.0 12.7–41.8 — — — —
Mitchell Evans eligible CAR CHI 5.5 0.2–21.3 — — — —
Oronde Gadsden II eligible LAC ARI 16.5 1.7–31.2 — — — —
Jackson Hawes eligible BUF HOU 6.5 0–13.7 — — — —
Moliki Matavao eligible NO DET 8.0 0.2–19.9 — — — —
Jakobie Keeney-James eligible GB MIN 26.0 5.9–50.2 — — — —
Efton Chism III eligible NE SEA 2.5 0.9–11.1 — — — —
Gunnar Helm eligible TEN NYJ 18.0 3.4–42.7 — — — —
Drake Dabney eligible GB MIN 23.5 3.1–56.7 — — — —
Jalen Royals eligible KC DEN 8.0 0.1–12 — — — —
Tory Horton eligible SEA NE 14.0 0–22.1 — — — —
Harold Fannin Jr. eligible CLE JAX 40.5 24.1–63.8 — — — —
Matthew Golden eligible GB MIN 15.5 0.4–31.9 — — — —
Isaac TeSlaa eligible DET NO 12.0 0–25.7 — — — —
Tre Harris eligible LAC ARI 16.0 3.5–34.4 — — — —
Jack Bech eligible LV MIA 12.0 1.2–30.9 — — — —
Mason Taylor eligible NYJ TEN 21.5 8.9–40.8 — — — —
Terrance Ferguson eligible LA SF 10.0 0–21 — — — —
Isaiah Bond eligible CLE JAX 9.5 0.2–20.2 — — — —
Methodology. A LightGBM quantile model (q10–q90) trained on nflverse player-game data since 2021 projects each receiver's yardage and receptions distribution from role (target/air-yards share, snaps, depth chart, injuries), team tendencies (pass rate over expected, pace), opponent pass defense (EPA, pressure), and game environment (Vegas totals, spread, venue). Quantiles become a full probability curve, calibrated against three seasons of real closing lines, so P(over) is priced for the actual book line. Edges compare our probability to the de-vigged sharp market; validation is strictly walk-forward (the model never sees the week it predicts). Predictions freeze when published and grade automatically after games — history and CLV are tracked on every flagged edge.