Rush Attempts Model

How the Rush Attempts Model Works

What it predicts

Official rushing attempts for one game: designed runs, scrambles and kneel-downs, which is the number sportsbooks grade. The headline number is the average of a full count distribution, so 14.3 means "about 14, give or take". The 80% range is where the actual count should land four times out of five. P(Over) is the model's chance the player clears the current Hard Rock line, read off that same distribution.

Two questions, then one number

How many times will the team run? The pregame spread and total (favorites run late to drain the clock, underdogs throw), the team's run rate over expected, pace, scrambles and kneel-downs, how often opponents run on this defense, box counts from FTN charting, and PFF run-blocking and run-defense grades. What share goes to this player? Recent and season carry share, his share when the team was leading vs trailing (weighted by this game's expected script), goal-line and short-yardage role, snap share, depth chart, receiving role, and teammates who are out or returning. A one-stage model fed the same inputs is tested next to the two-stage one, and the blend that predicts best on past seasons goes live.

How it was tested

Against actual carries, not betting lines. Every 2018–2025 season was predicted by a model trained only on earlier seasons, and every 2026 week by a model trained only on earlier weeks. A run goes live only if it beats the last-4-game average, the season average and team carries × carry share on both average error and squared error. Held-out error for RBs and QBs: 2.69 carries per game vs 2.91 for the last-4 average. Full results, plus how often players went over or under their closing lines, are on the backtest page.

Best Bets

A player qualifies when the model's chance of going over differs from Hard Rock's de-vigged price by at least 10 percentage points. The three qualifiers the model is most confident about are the week's Best Bets (★ in the Pick column, where "+14" means a 14-point gap). Since 2023, disagreements of 10+ points have won about 55% at the close. Small disagreements lose to the juice, so they are not shown as picks. Players are skipped when they are Questionable/Doubtful/Out, have no NFL history, practiced limited with no game status yet, or when a teammate the model expects to play has no line. A missing line is how books signal an injury before the report does, so a disagreement there usually means the model is missing the news. Picks are re-checked hourly and freeze at kickoff, and the live record grades them against official carries. Players who don't play are voids. Most picks are unders.

Close record

"vs Close" is how often the player has gone over or under his closing rush-attempts line since 2023. The closing line is the most common line across sportsbooks 45 minutes before kickoff, from The Odds API's historical snapshots. That is the only history available: Hard Rock lines were not captured before September 2026.

When it updates

Data refreshes every morning (play-by-play, injury report, FTN charting), with a final re-score Sunday before kickoff and a retrain every Tuesday. A projection assumes the player suits up. Players listed Out are tagged. Lines are Hard Rock only and appear once Hard Rock posts them, often late in the week.

Data through Oct 19, 2026 · projections refreshed Oct 20, 11:40 AM CT · model trained Oct 20, 11:40 AM CT · Backtest & closing-line study →

★ Best Bets · Week 6 18 qualify

Full record & pick log →

★ Top 3 live 4-2 +1.2u (+20.1%) · 3 pending | backtest Hard Rock 2025+ 58.0% +7.8% n=50 · all books 2023+ 56.9% +4.3% n=216

All qualifiers live 21-15 +3.0u (+8.4%) · 3 pending | backtest Hard Rock 2025+ 58.6% +9.5% n=350 · all books 2023+ 55.0% +3.8% n=2060

★ #1

Tyler Allgeier LOSS · 18

RB · ARI vs LA · Oct 18, 3:05 PM CT

Under 12.5 +100 Hard Rock

Model 79% vs market 47% (edge 32 pts) · projects 8.7 carries

★ #2

Rhamondre Stevenson WIN · 14

RB · NE vs NYJ · Oct 18, 12:00 PM CT

Under 14.5 -130 Hard Rock

Model 74% vs market 53% (edge 21 pts) · projects 11.6 carries

★ #3

Emanuel Wilson WIN · 14

RB · SEA vs DEN · Oct 15, 7:15 PM CT

Under 18.5 -130 Hard Rock

Model 74% vs market 53% (edge 21 pts) · projects 15.4 carries

Qualifier

Jayden Daniels LOSS · 4

QB · WAS vs SF · Oct 19, 7:15 PM CT

Over 6.5 -130 Hard Rock

Model 75% vs market 53% (edge 22 pts) · projects 9.7 carries

Qualifier

MarShawn Lloyd WIN · 8

RB · GB vs DAL · Oct 18, 7:20 PM CT

Under 11.5 -115 Hard Rock

Model 74% vs market 50% (edge 24 pts) · projects 8.8 carries

Qualifier

Cam Skattebo VOID

RB · NYG vs NO · Oct 18, 12:00 PM CT

Over 11.5 -105 Hard Rock

Model 70% vs market 48% (edge 22 pts) · projects 14.5 carries

Qualifier

Blake Corum WIN · 9

RB · LA vs ARI · Oct 18, 3:05 PM CT

Under 9.5 -110 Hard Rock

Model 70% vs market 49% (edge 21 pts) · projects 7.7 carries

Qualifier

Jalon Daniels WIN · 4

QB · TB vs PIT · Oct 18, 12:00 PM CT

Under 6.5 -115 Hard Rock

Model 69% vs market 50% (edge 19 pts) · projects 5.4 carries

Qualifier

Jordan Love LOSS · 4

QB · GB vs DAL · Oct 18, 7:20 PM CT

Under 2.5 -115 Hard Rock

Model 67% vs market 50% (edge 17 pts) · projects 2.1 carries

Qualifier

Sam Darnold WIN · 2

QB · SEA vs DEN · Oct 15, 7:15 PM CT

Under 2.5 -140 Hard Rock

Model 67% vs market 54% (edge 13 pts) · projects 2.1 carries

Qualifier

Chuba Hubbard LOSS · 28

RB · CAR vs PHI · Oct 18, 12:00 PM CT

Under 18.5 -125 Hard Rock

Model 66% vs market 52% (edge 14 pts) · projects 16.6 carries

Qualifier

Brian Robinson WIN · 2

RB · ATL vs CHI · Oct 18, 12:00 PM CT

Under 7.5 +100 Hard Rock

Model 66% vs market 47% (edge 19 pts) · projects 6.5 carries

Qualifier

Justin Herbert WIN · 5

QB · LAC vs KC · Oct 18, 3:25 PM CT

Over 3.5 -125 Hard Rock

Model 64% vs market 52% (edge 12 pts) · projects 4.9 carries

Qualifier

Omarion Hampton LOSS · 7

RB · LAC vs KC · Oct 18, 3:25 PM CT

Over 9.5 -125 Hard Rock

Model 64% vs market 52% (edge 12 pts) · projects 12.0 carries

Qualifier

Christian McCaffrey LOSS · 16

RB · SF vs WAS · Oct 19, 7:15 PM CT

Under 14.5 +100 Hard Rock

Model 64% vs market 47% (edge 17 pts) · projects 13.1 carries

Qualifier

Patrick Mahomes LOSS · 5

QB · KC vs LAC · Oct 18, 3:25 PM CT

Under 3.5 -110 Hard Rock

Model 60% vs market 49% (edge 11 pts) · projects 3.3 carries

Qualifier

Jonathan Taylor LOSS · 21

RB · IND vs TEN · Oct 18, 12:00 PM CT

Under 19.5 +100 Hard Rock

Model 60% vs market 47% (edge 13 pts) · projects 18.5 carries

Qualifier

RJ Harvey LOSS · 6

RB · DEN vs SEA · Oct 15, 7:15 PM CT

Under 4.5 +105 Hard Rock

Model 56% vs market 46% (edge 10 pts) · projects 5.0 carries

Rule: every player whose model chance differs from Hard Rock's no-vig price by 10+ points qualifies; the 3 most confident are the ★ Top 3. Records are 1 unit flat at the Hard Rock price logged at kickoff. Skipped: Questionable/Doubtful/Out, no NFL history, limited in practice with no status yet, or a teammate the model expects to play has no line (books pulling a starter usually means news). Picks freeze at kickoff and are re-checked hourly (last Oct 19, 7:05 PM CT). Most picks are unders, which is where the edge has been. Not a guarantee: see the backtest.