Rush Attempts Model

How the Rush Attempts Model Works

What it predicts

Official rushing attempts for one game: designed runs, scrambles and kneel-downs, which is the number sportsbooks grade. The headline number is the average of a full count distribution, so 14.3 means "about 14, give or take". The 80% range is where the actual count should land four times out of five. P(Over) is the model's chance the player clears the current Hard Rock line, read off that same distribution.

Two questions, then one number

How many times will the team run? The pregame spread and total (favorites run late to drain the clock, underdogs throw), the team's run rate over expected, pace, scrambles and kneel-downs, how often opponents run on this defense, box counts from FTN charting, and PFF run-blocking and run-defense grades. What share goes to this player? Recent and season carry share, his share when the team was leading vs trailing (weighted by this game's expected script), goal-line and short-yardage role, snap share, depth chart, receiving role, and teammates who are out or returning. A one-stage model fed the same inputs is tested next to the two-stage one, and the blend that predicts best on past seasons goes live.

How it was tested

Against actual carries, not betting lines. Every 2018–2025 season was predicted by a model trained only on earlier seasons, and every 2026 week by a model trained only on earlier weeks. A run goes live only if it beats the last-4-game average, the season average and team carries × carry share on both average error and squared error. Held-out error for RBs and QBs: 2.69 carries per game vs 2.91 for the last-4 average. Full results, plus how often players went over or under their closing lines, are on the backtest page.

Best Bets

A player qualifies when the model's chance of going over differs from Hard Rock's de-vigged price by at least 10 percentage points. The three qualifiers the model is most confident about are the week's Best Bets (★ in the Pick column, where "+14" means a 14-point gap). Since 2023, disagreements of 10+ points have won about 55% at the close. Small disagreements lose to the juice, so they are not shown as picks. Players are skipped when they are Questionable/Doubtful/Out, have no NFL history, practiced limited with no game status yet, or when a teammate the model expects to play has no line. A missing line is how books signal an injury before the report does, so a disagreement there usually means the model is missing the news. Picks are re-checked hourly and freeze at kickoff, and the live record grades them against official carries. Players who don't play are voids. Most picks are unders.

Close record

"vs Close" is how often the player has gone over or under his closing rush-attempts line since 2023. The closing line is the most common line across sportsbooks 45 minutes before kickoff, from The Odds API's historical snapshots. That is the only history available: Hard Rock lines were not captured before September 2026.

When it updates

Data refreshes every morning (play-by-play, injury report, FTN charting), with a final re-score Sunday before kickoff and a retrain every Tuesday. A projection assumes the player suits up. Players listed Out are tagged. Lines are Hard Rock only and appear once Hard Rock posts them, often late in the week.

Data through Oct 19, 2026 · projections refreshed Oct 20, 11:40 AM CT · model trained Oct 20, 11:40 AM CT · Backtest & closing-line study →

★ Best Bets · Week 5 19 qualify

Full record & pick log →

★ Top 3 live 4-2 +1.2u (+20.1%) · 3 pending | backtest Hard Rock 2025+ 58.0% +7.8% n=50 · all books 2023+ 56.9% +4.3% n=216

All qualifiers live 21-15 +3.0u (+8.4%) · 3 pending | backtest Hard Rock 2025+ 58.6% +9.5% n=350 · all books 2023+ 55.0% +3.8% n=2060

★ #1

D'Andre Swift WIN · 9

RB · CHI vs GB · Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT

Under 19.5 -115 Hard Rock

Model 85% vs market 50% (edge 35 pts) · projects 14.2 carries

★ #2

Tyler Huntley LOSS · 6

QB · BAL vs ATL · Oct 11, 7:20 PM CT

Under 5.5 +100 Hard Rock

Model 76% vs market 47% (edge 29 pts) · projects 4.0 carries

★ #3

Kaleb Johnson WIN · 7

RB · GB vs CHI · Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT

Under 9.5 -125 Hard Rock

Model 72% vs market 52% (edge 20 pts) · projects 7.4 carries

Qualifier

Ollie Gordon II LOSS · 18

RB · MIA vs CIN · Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT

Under 10.5 -105 Hard Rock

Model 72% vs market 48% (edge 24 pts) · projects 8.3 carries

Qualifier

Emanuel Wilson LOSS · 20

RB · SEA vs SF · Oct 11, 3:25 PM CT

Under 16.5 -115 Hard Rock

Model 71% vs market 50% (edge 21 pts) · projects 14.1 carries

Qualifier

Jalen Hurts WIN · 2

QB · PHI vs JAX · Oct 11, 8:30 AM CT

Under 6.5 -135 Hard Rock

Model 70% vs market 54% (edge 16 pts) · projects 5.2 carries

Qualifier

Malik Willis LOSS · 8

QB · MIA vs CIN · Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT

Under 5.5 -110 Hard Rock

Model 70% vs market 49% (edge 21 pts) · projects 4.4 carries

Qualifier

Chase Brown WIN · 13

RB · CIN vs MIA · Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT

Under 16.5 -110 Hard Rock

Model 70% vs market 49% (edge 21 pts) · projects 14.3 carries

Qualifier

Tyler Allgeier WIN · 3

RB · ARI vs DET · Oct 11, 3:25 PM CT

Under 7.5 -125 Hard Rock

Model 68% vs market 52% (edge 16 pts) · projects 6.2 carries

Qualifier

Jacory Croskey-Merritt WIN · 11

RB · WAS vs NYG · Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT

Under 12.5 -105 Hard Rock

Model 67% vs market 48% (edge 19 pts) · projects 10.8 carries

Qualifier

TreVeyon Henderson WIN · 4

RB · NE vs LV · Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT

Under 11.5 -105 Hard Rock

Model 66% vs market 48% (edge 18 pts) · projects 10.1 carries

Qualifier

Christian McCaffrey WIN · 11

RB · SF vs SEA · Oct 11, 3:25 PM CT

Under 14.5 -120 Hard Rock

Model 66% vs market 51% (edge 15 pts) · projects 12.8 carries

Qualifier

Quinshon Judkins WIN · 14

RB · CLE vs NYJ · Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT

Under 16.5 -120 Hard Rock

Model 66% vs market 51% (edge 15 pts) · projects 14.8 carries

Qualifier

Josh Allen LOSS · 10

QB · BUF vs LA · Oct 12, 7:15 PM CT

Under 7.5 -115 Hard Rock

Model 65% vs market 50% (edge 15 pts) · projects 6.5 carries

Qualifier

Keaton Mitchell WIN · 6

RB · LAC vs DEN · Oct 11, 3:05 PM CT

Under 7.5 -110 Hard Rock

Model 65% vs market 49% (edge 16 pts) · projects 6.6 carries

Qualifier

Jonathan Taylor WIN · 15

RB · IND vs PIT · Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT

Under 19.5 -125 Hard Rock

Model 64% vs market 52% (edge 12 pts) · projects 17.8 carries

Qualifier

Cam Skattebo WIN · 13

RB · NYG vs WAS · Oct 11, 12:00 PM CT

Under 15.5 +100 Hard Rock

Model 61% vs market 47% (edge 14 pts) · projects 14.5 carries

Qualifier

Jahmyr Gibbs LOSS · 25

RB · DET vs ARI · Oct 11, 3:25 PM CT

Under 19.5 -105 Hard Rock

Model 61% vs market 48% (edge 13 pts) · projects 18.3 carries

Qualifier

Brian Robinson WIN · 7

RB · ATL vs BAL · Oct 11, 7:20 PM CT

Under 8.5 -110 Hard Rock

Model 59% vs market 49% (edge 10 pts) · projects 8.2 carries

Rule: every player whose model chance differs from Hard Rock's no-vig price by 10+ points qualifies; the 3 most confident are the ★ Top 3. Records are 1 unit flat at the Hard Rock price logged at kickoff. Skipped: Questionable/Doubtful/Out, no NFL history, limited in practice with no status yet, or a teammate the model expects to play has no line (books pulling a starter usually means news). Picks freeze at kickoff and are re-checked hourly (last Oct 12, 7:05 PM CT). Most picks are unders, which is where the edge has been. Not a guarantee: see the backtest.