Rush Attempts Model — Backtest
← Projections · model rush-20261020-1640, trained through 2026 week 6Accuracy vs actual carries
Held-out seasons 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, plus 2026 week by week. RB and QB player-games with at least one prior game. Live model: Team × share + trees. It beats every baseline on both MAE and RMSE: yes.
Model MAE
2.69
carries per player-game, n=18,961
Last-4 avg MAE
2.91
7.6% worse than the model
2026 MAE
2.52
week-by-week, bias -0.18
80% range coverage
80.5%
held-out, target 80%
| Model | n | MAE | RMSE | Mean pred | Mean actual | 2026 MAE | 2026 RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team × share + trees | 18,961 | 2.694 | 3.853 | 5.96 | 5.99 | 2.516 | 3.625 |
| Team × share + trees (bias-corrected) | 18,961 | 2.698 | 3.855 | 5.99 | 5.99 | 2.517 | 3.624 |
| Team carries × share | 18,961 | 2.694 | 3.855 | 5.97 | 5.99 | 2.518 | 3.622 |
| One-stage trees (LightGBM) | 18,961 | 2.707 | 3.872 | 5.96 | 5.99 | 2.535 | 3.643 |
| Average of all three | 18,961 | 2.726 | 3.880 | 6.09 | 5.99 | 2.530 | 3.638 |
| One-stage Poisson regression | 18,961 | 2.895 | 4.140 | 6.36 | 5.99 | 2.593 | 3.732 |
| Last-4-game average | 18,961 | 2.915 | 4.254 | 6.01 | 5.99 | 2.923 | 4.173 |
| Team L4 carries × L4 share | 18,961 | 2.918 | 4.262 | 6.00 | 5.99 | 2.914 | 4.156 |
| Season average | 18,961 | 2.913 | 4.270 | 5.87 | 5.99 | 2.920 | 4.236 |
Per season (MAE, RB + QB)
| Season | n | Model | Last-4 | Season avg | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2,295 | 2.69 | 2.83 | 2.83 | 2.83 |
| 2019 | 2,280 | 2.55 | 2.73 | 2.71 | 2.73 |
| 2020 | 2,374 | 2.72 | 2.98 | 2.98 | 3.00 |
| 2021 | 2,452 | 2.80 | 3.11 | 3.11 | 3.11 |
| 2022 | 2,416 | 2.76 | 2.95 | 2.93 | 2.96 |
| 2023 | 2,405 | 2.68 | 2.94 | 2.95 | 2.93 |
| 2024 | 2,365 | 2.73 | 2.96 | 2.97 | 2.96 |
| 2025 | 2,374 | 2.61 | 2.82 | 2.80 | 2.82 |
| 2026 | 752 | 2.52 | 2.92 | 2.92 | 2.91 |
Calibration (held-out RB + QB)
| Projected | n | Mean pred | Mean actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 2,256 | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| 1-3 | 5,106 | 2.08 | 2.16 |
| 3-6 | 5,021 | 4.23 | 4.17 |
| 6-9 | 2,116 | 7.36 | 7.41 |
| 9-12 | 1,611 | 10.48 | 10.66 |
| 12-15 | 1,707 | 13.45 | 13.59 |
| 15-18 | 1,153 | 16.29 | 16.03 |
| 18+ | 383 | 19.56 | 19.35 |
Team stage: team carries per game
| Model | n | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team model | 4,454 | 5.82 | 7.21 |
| Last-4 average | 4,454 | 6.45 | 8.01 |
| Season average | 4,454 | 6.31 | 7.85 |
Over / under the closing line
Every player-game since 2023 with a posted rush-attempts prop, closing line vs official carries. Over% and Under% exclude pushes. Players without a box-score line (did not play) are excluded.
Over
47.3%
475 of 1,005
Under
52.7%
530 unders · 0 pushes
Avg line / actual
11.9 / 11.8
carries
Brier: model / market
0.258 / 0.249
the close is sharper · n=1,005
By season
| Season | n | Over% | Under% | Push | Avg line | Avg actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0 | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| 2025 | 665 | 47.1% | 52.9% | 0 | 12.54 | 12.41 |
| 2026 | 338 | 47.6% | 52.4% | 0 | 10.72 | 10.72 |
By position and line size
| Group | n | Over% | Under% | Avg line | Avg actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 240 | 43.8% | 56.2% | 5.35 | 5.11 |
| RB | 765 | 48.4% | 51.6% | 13.99 | 13.95 |
| Line 0.5–3.5 | 70 | 47.1% | 52.9% | 3.11 | 3.29 |
| Line 4.5–7.5 | 201 | 44.3% | 55.7% | 6.06 | 5.83 |
| Line 8.5–11.5 | 178 | 47.2% | 52.8% | 10.15 | 10.38 |
| Line 12.5–15.5 | 316 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 14.07 | 14.25 |
| Line 16.5+ | 240 | 46.3% | 53.7% | 17.91 | 17.29 |
Model vs the close (Pinnacle close)
Out-of-sample model on the same player-games. The model's average miss is 3.59 carries vs 3.48 for the closing line itself. When the model is above the line, the over hit 53.1% of the time it leaned (both directions combined). By the gap between the model's and the market's over probability:
| |Model − no-vig| | n | Overs / unders | Model's side hit | Flat-stake ROI at the close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.03 | 164 | 79 / 85 | 54.3% | +4.0% ± 7.5 |
| 0.03-0.06 | 169 | 71 / 98 | 47.9% | -10.0% ± 7.3 |
| 0.06-0.10 | 207 | 69 / 138 | 53.1% | +0.9% ± 6.6 |
| 0.10-1.00 | 465 | 90 / 375 | 54.8% | +4.8% ± 4.4 |
Break-even at standard −110 juice is 52.4%. ROI uses the closing price of the side the model favors (± one standard error). For reference, betting every under at the close returned
-0.4%. These are out-of-sample model numbers, but the closes cover only 2023 onward. Treat a bucket as real only if it holds season after season. It is not a guarantee.
Players vs their closing line
Consensus close, 2026 only, at least 4 lines. Sorted by over rate.
| Player | Pos | Team | Lines | O-U-P | Over% | Avg line | Avg carries | Avg diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | QB | CLE | 6 | 6-0-0 | 100.0% | 5.3 | 7.5 | +2.2 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | MIN | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 13.9 | 19.4 | +5.5 |
| Kyle Monangai | RB | CHI | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 8.8 | 15.0 | +6.2 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | CHI | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 15.5 | 15.7 | +0.2 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | TB | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 14.5 | 16.0 | +1.5 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 13.2 | 15.7 | +2.5 |
| Rachaad White | RB | WAS | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 7.3 | 7.2 | -0.1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | KC | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 18.1 | 21.2 | +3.1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | ARI | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 2.5 | 3.8 | +1.2 |
| Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 2.8 | 3.3 | +0.5 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 19.5 | 21.7 | +2.2 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | TEN | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 13.5 | 14.5 | +1.0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 19.3 | 20.3 | +1.0 |
| Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 4.5 | 4.8 | +0.3 |
| James Cook | RB | BUF | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 17.3 | 19.5 | +2.2 |
| Brock Purdy | QB | SF | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 4.3 | 5.0 | +0.7 |
| Woody Marks | RB | HOU | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 9.5 | 9.7 | +0.2 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 15.5 | 17.8 | +2.3 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | RB | ATL | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 7.1 | 7.8 | +0.7 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 19.1 | 21.0 | +1.9 |
| Cam Skattebo | RB | NYG | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 14.9 | 16.2 | +1.3 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB | ARI | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 11.5 | 13.4 | +1.9 |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 7.3 | 8.0 | +0.7 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | DEN | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 13.0 | 13.5 | +0.5 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 11.8 | 11.8 | +0.0 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | PIT | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 14.2 | 14.0 | -0.2 |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | ARI | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 8.7 | 8.8 | +0.2 |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LA | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 13.7 | 13.3 | -0.3 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | JAX | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 6.3 | 6.5 | +0.2 |
| Braelon Allen | RB | NYJ | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 10.7 | 12.3 | +1.7 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | RB | GB | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 9.7 | 8.0 | -1.7 |
| Drake Maye | QB | NE | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 5.5 | 5.7 | +0.2 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 15.7 | 16.3 | +0.7 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | RB | LV | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 5.5 | 5.7 | +0.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 3.5 | 3.8 | +0.2 |
| Kyler Murray | QB | MIN | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 6.8 | 6.3 | -0.5 |
| Cam Ward | QB | TEN | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 3.0 | 2.3 | -0.8 |
| Samaje Perine | RB | CIN | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 4.3 | 5.4 | +1.1 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 8.3 | 7.0 | -1.3 |
| Malik Willis | QB | MIA | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 6.5 | 5.4 | -1.1 |
| Chase Brown | RB | CIN | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 15.3 | 14.2 | -1.1 |
| Bryce Young | QB | CAR | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 3.1 | 1.8 | -1.3 |
| Blake Corum | RB | LA | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 10.1 | 8.4 | -1.7 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | WAS | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 12.1 | 13.4 | +1.3 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | NE | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 9.7 | 9.8 | +0.1 |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 15.7 | 14.6 | -1.1 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 2.8 | 2.3 | -0.5 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 14.7 | 12.8 | -1.8 |
| Daniel Jones | QB | IND | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 3.3 | 2.8 | -0.5 |
| Javonte Williams | RB | DAL | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 16.3 | 14.2 | -2.2 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 18.7 | 18.5 | -0.2 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | LAC | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 13.7 | 13.3 | -0.3 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 6.5 | 4.8 | -1.8 |
| Keaton Mitchell | RB | LAC | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 6.0 | 5.8 | -0.2 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 3.0 | 2.8 | -0.2 |
| Tyler Shough | QB | NO | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 4.3 | 3.0 | -1.2 |
| David Montgomery | RB | HOU | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 13.3 | 10.4 | -2.9 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 6.7 | 4.6 | -2.1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | RB | TB | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 5.3 | 3.4 | -1.9 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | TEN | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 5.0 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| Bo Nix | QB | DEN | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 4.5 | 3.7 | -0.8 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | 6 | 0-6-0 | 0.0% | 4.0 | 2.8 | -1.2 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 17.5 | 9.0 | -8.5 |
| Kaleb Johnson | RB | GB | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 7.8 | 4.8 | -3.0 |