Rush Attempts Model — Backtest | GameDay Analytics

Accuracy vs actual carries

Held-out seasons 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, plus 2026 week by week. RB and QB player-games with at least one prior game. Live model: Team × share + trees. It beats every baseline on both MAE and RMSE: yes.

Model MAE

2.69

carries per player-game, n=18,961

Last-4 avg MAE

2.91

7.6% worse than the model

2026 MAE

2.52

week-by-week, bias -0.18

80% range coverage

80.5%

held-out, target 80%

Model	n	MAE	RMSE	Mean pred	Mean actual	2026 MAE	2026 RMSE
Team × share + trees	18,961	2.694	3.853	5.96	5.99	2.516	3.625
Team × share + trees (bias-corrected)	18,961	2.698	3.855	5.99	5.99	2.517	3.624
Team carries × share	18,961	2.694	3.855	5.97	5.99	2.518	3.622
One-stage trees (LightGBM)	18,961	2.707	3.872	5.96	5.99	2.535	3.643
Average of all three	18,961	2.726	3.880	6.09	5.99	2.530	3.638
One-stage Poisson regression	18,961	2.895	4.140	6.36	5.99	2.593	3.732
Last-4-game average	18,961	2.915	4.254	6.01	5.99	2.923	4.173
Team L4 carries × L4 share	18,961	2.918	4.262	6.00	5.99	2.914	4.156
Season average	18,961	2.913	4.270	5.87	5.99	2.920	4.236

Per season (MAE, RB + QB)

Season	n	Model	Last-4	Season avg	Volume
2018	2,295	2.69	2.83	2.83	2.83
2019	2,280	2.55	2.73	2.71	2.73
2020	2,374	2.72	2.98	2.98	3.00
2021	2,452	2.80	3.11	3.11	3.11
2022	2,416	2.76	2.95	2.93	2.96
2023	2,405	2.68	2.94	2.95	2.93
2024	2,365	2.73	2.96	2.97	2.96
2025	2,374	2.61	2.82	2.80	2.82
2026	752	2.52	2.92	2.92	2.91

Calibration (held-out RB + QB)

Projected	n	Mean pred	Mean actual
0-1	2,256	0.36	0.42
1-3	5,106	2.08	2.16
3-6	5,021	4.23	4.17
6-9	2,116	7.36	7.41
9-12	1,611	10.48	10.66
12-15	1,707	13.45	13.59
15-18	1,153	16.29	16.03
18+	383	19.56	19.35

Team stage: team carries per game

Model	n	MAE	RMSE
Team model	4,454	5.82	7.21
Last-4 average	4,454	6.45	8.01
Season average	4,454	6.31	7.85

Over / under the closing line

Every player-game since 2023 with a posted rush-attempts prop, closing line vs official carries. Over% and Under% exclude pushes. Players without a box-score line (did not play) are excluded.

Consensus close (all books) (4,345) Pinnacle close (1,005) Hard Rock close (704)

Over

47.1%

2,048 of 4,345

Under

52.9%

2,297 unders · 0 pushes

Avg line / actual

9.1 / 9.2

carries

Brier: model / market

0.257 / 0.248

the close is sharper · n=4,341

By season

Season	n	Over%	Under%	Avg line	Avg actual
2023	1,081	49.4%	50.6%	9.75	10.01
2024	1,305	47.3%	52.7%	9.20	9.23
2025	1,495	45.6%	54.4%	8.62	8.55
2026	464	46.3%	53.7%	8.92	8.92

By position and line size

Group	n	Over%	Under%	Avg line	Avg actual
QB	1,499	47.7%	52.3%	4.24	4.25
RB	2,778	47.4%	52.6%	11.91	11.99
WR/TE	68	25.0%	75.0%	1.94	1.40
Line 0.5–3.5	1,040	48.7%	51.3%	2.70	2.89
Line 4.5–7.5	1,078	44.7%	55.3%	5.80	5.73
Line 8.5–11.5	691	47.6%	52.4%	9.93	10.09
Line 12.5–15.5	990	47.5%	52.5%	14.03	14.13
Line 16.5+	546	47.8%	52.2%	17.86	17.65

Model vs the close (Consensus close (all books))

Out-of-sample model on the same player-games. The model's average miss is 3.20 carries vs 3.07 for the closing line itself. When the model is above the line, the over hit 53.6% of the time it leaned (both directions combined). By the gap between the model's and the market's over probability:

\|Model − no-vig\|	n	Overs / unders	Model's side hit	Flat-stake ROI at the close
0.00-0.03	737	330 / 407	53.5%	+0.1% ± 3.5
0.03-0.06	705	256 / 449	48.9%	-8.3% ± 3.5
0.06-0.10	839	248 / 591	53.2%	-0.4% ± 3.2
0.10-1.00	2,060	334 / 1726	55.0%	+3.8% ± 2.1

Break-even at standard −110 juice is 52.4%. ROI uses the closing price of the side the model favors (± one standard error). For reference, betting every under at the close returned -1.2%. These are out-of-sample model numbers, but the closes cover only 2023 onward. Treat a bucket as real only if it holds season after season. It is not a guarantee.

Players vs their closing line

Consensus close, 2023 only, at least 4 lines. Sorted by over rate.

All seasons 2026 2025 2024 2023

Player	Pos	Team	Lines	O-U-P	Over%	Avg line	Avg carries	Avg diff
Tyson Bagent	QB	CHI	4	4-0-0	100.0%	3.5	5.3	+1.8
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	8	6-2-0	75.0%	3.6	4.5	+0.9
Jake Browning	QB	CIN	4	3-1-0	75.0%	3.0	3.8	+0.8
Cam Akers	RB	MIN	4	3-1-0	75.0%	9.5	10.0	+0.5
Rachaad White	RB	TB	18	13-5-0	72.2%	15.1	16.1	+1.0
Isiah Pacheco	RB	KC	18	12-6-0	66.7%	14.3	15.9	+1.6
Kyren Williams	RB	LA	12	8-4-0	66.7%	16.5	18.8	+2.3
Kareem Hunt	RB	CLE	9	6-3-0	66.7%	8.6	10.4	+1.8
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	9	6-3-0	66.7%	15.9	18.1	+2.2
Geno Smith	QB	SEA	6	4-2-0	66.7%	2.8	3.3	+0.5
Mac Jones	QB	NE	6	4-2-0	66.7%	2.5	3.0	+0.5
David Montgomery	RB	DET	16	10-6-0	62.5%	14.4	15.5	+1.1
D'Onta Foreman	RB	CHI	8	5-3-0	62.5%	11.3	12.3	+1.0
Austin Ekeler	RB	LAC	13	8-5-0	61.5%	12.7	13.0	+0.3
Najee Harris	RB	PIT	18	11-7-0	61.1%	13.5	14.8	+1.3
Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	20	12-8-0	60.0%	4.4	4.9	+0.6
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	15	9-6-0	60.0%	11.5	13.3	+1.8
Javonte Williams	RB	DEN	15	9-6-0	60.0%	13.2	13.9	+0.6
Kenneth Walker III	RB	SEA	15	9-6-0	60.0%	15.0	14.6	-0.4
Joshua Dobbs	QB	MIN	10	6-4-0	60.0%	4.8	5.5	+0.7
Zach Wilson	QB	NYJ	10	6-4-0	60.0%	2.8	2.8	+0.0
Daniel Jones	QB	NYG	5	3-2-0	60.0%	6.9	7.6	+0.7
Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	17	10-7-0	58.8%	9.0	9.5	+0.5
D'Andre Swift	RB	PHI	17	10-7-0	58.8%	13.0	14.1	+1.0
Russell Wilson	QB	DEN	12	7-5-0	58.3%	4.8	4.9	+0.2
Aaron Jones	RB	GB	12	7-5-0	58.3%	12.8	13.4	+0.6
James Cook	RB	BUF	19	11-8-0	57.9%	13.2	14.4	+1.2
AJ Dillon	RB	GB	14	8-6-0	57.1%	11.2	12.1	+0.9
Tyler Allgeier	RB	ATL	14	8-6-0	57.1%	9.1	10.4	+1.4
Zack Moss	RB	IND	7	4-3-0	57.1%	15.5	17.1	+1.6
Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	7	4-3-0	57.1%	2.9	3.4	+0.5
Gus Edwards	RB	BAL	18	10-8-0	55.6%	11.3	11.2	-0.2
Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	11	6-5-0	54.5%	3.0	3.5	+0.4
Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	13	7-6-0	53.8%	14.0	13.8	-0.1
Josh Jacobs	RB	LV	13	7-6-0	53.8%	17.3	17.9	+0.6
Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	13	7-6-0	53.8%	3.3	4.0	+0.7
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	17	9-8-0	52.9%	10.3	11.6	+1.3
Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	16	8-8-0	50.0%	9.2	9.2	+0.0
Devin Singletary	RB	HOU	12	6-6-0	50.0%	14.3	15.8	+1.5
Desmond Ridder	QB	ATL	12	6-6-0	50.0%	3.3	4.0	+0.7
Dameon Pierce	RB	HOU	10	5-5-0	50.0%	12.1	13.3	+1.2
Justice Hill	RB	BAL	6	3-3-0	50.0%	5.7	6.8	+1.2
Jared Goff	QB	DET	4	2-2-0	50.0%	1.8	2.3	+0.5
Deshaun Watson	QB	CLE	4	2-2-0	50.0%	5.0	4.5	-0.5
Keaton Mitchell	RB	BAL	4	2-2-0	50.0%	8.3	8.8	+0.5
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	19	9-10-0	47.4%	17.6	17.4	-0.1
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	17	8-9-0	47.1%	3.5	3.5	+0.0
Travis Etienne Jr.	RB	JAX	17	8-9-0	47.1%	15.9	15.7	-0.1
Brock Purdy	QB	SF	17	8-9-0	47.1%	2.9	2.6	-0.2
Saquon Barkley	RB	NYG	13	6-7-0	46.2%	16.7	17.2	+0.4
Alexander Mattison	RB	MIN	13	6-7-0	46.2%	12.3	12.9	+0.6
Justin Fields	QB	CHI	13	6-7-0	46.2%	9.5	9.5	+0.0
Brian Robinson Jr.	RB	WAS	13	6-7-0	46.2%	13.3	12.3	-1.0
Khalil Herbert	RB	CHI	11	5-6-0	45.5%	10.1	10.9	+0.8
Josh Allen	QB	BUF	18	8-10-0	44.4%	6.6	6.7	+0.2
Raheem Mostert	RB	MIA	16	7-9-0	43.8%	12.7	13.6	+0.9
Derrick Henry	RB	TEN	16	7-9-0	43.8%	16.4	16.3	-0.1
Joe Mixon	RB	CIN	16	7-9-0	43.8%	14.8	15.2	+0.4
Jamaal Williams	RB	NO	7	3-4-0	42.9%	9.8	11.0	+1.2
Kyler Murray	QB	ARI	7	3-4-0	42.9%	5.8	5.4	-0.4
Ezekiel Elliott	RB	NE	12	5-7-0	41.7%	10.3	10.2	-0.2
Miles Sanders	RB	CAR	12	5-7-0	41.7%	10.1	9.3	-0.8
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	12	5-7-0	41.7%	12.4	13.0	+0.6
Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	17	7-10-0	41.2%	8.1	8.5	+0.3
Tua Tagovailoa	QB	MIA	10	4-6-0	40.0%	2.4	2.1	-0.3
Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	10	4-6-0	40.0%	5.7	5.4	-0.3
Bryce Young	QB	CAR	10	4-6-0	40.0%	2.5	2.0	-0.5
Gardner Minshew II	QB	IND	5	2-3-0	40.0%	2.3	1.8	-0.5
Tony Pollard	RB	DAL	18	7-11-0	38.9%	15.6	14.8	-0.8
James Conner	RB	ARI	13	5-8-0	38.5%	14.4	16.0	+1.6
Jerome Ford	RB	CLE	15	5-10-0	33.3%	12.2	11.9	-0.2
Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	15	5-10-0	33.3%	12.7	12.1	-0.6
Roschon Johnson	RB	CHI	9	3-6-0	33.3%	6.5	5.2	-1.3
Ty Chandler	RB	MIN	6	2-4-0	33.3%	12.7	11.2	-1.5
CJ Stroud	QB	HOU	6	2-4-0	33.3%	2.8	2.5	-0.3
Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	6	2-4-0	33.3%	9.2	8.3	-0.8
Jordan Love	QB	GB	17	5-12-0	29.4%	3.1	2.9	-0.2
Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	17	5-12-0	29.4%	14.1	12.6	-1.6
Sam Howell	QB	WAS	14	4-10-0	28.6%	3.4	2.8	-0.6
Ryan Tannehill	QB	TEN	7	2-5-0	28.6%	2.5	2.0	-0.5
Joshua Kelley	RB	LAC	7	2-5-0	28.6%	9.5	8.4	-1.1
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	PHI	7	2-5-0	28.6%	5.4	4.9	-0.5
Kenny Pickett	QB	PIT	7	2-5-0	28.6%	3.1	2.3	-0.8
DeVon Achane	RB	MIA	7	2-5-0	28.6%	9.6	10.0	+0.4
Dalvin Cook	RB	NYJ	4	1-3-0	25.0%	6.8	5.0	-1.8
Antonio Gibson	RB	WAS	4	1-3-0	25.0%	7.5	4.0	-3.5
Tommy DeVito	QB	NYG	4	1-3-0	25.0%	4.8	4.0	-0.8
Rico Dowdle	RB	DAL	5	0-5-0	0.0%	5.1	2.4	-2.7

Rush Attempts Model — Backtest ?

Reading the Backtest

Accuracy vs actual carries

Factor ablation

Over / under the closing line

Model vs the close

Accuracy vs actual carries

Per season (MAE, RB + QB)

Calibration (held-out RB + QB)

Team stage: team carries per game

Over / under the closing line

By season

By position and line size

Model vs the close (Consensus close (all books))

Players vs their closing line

Rush Attempts Model — Backtest