NFL Week 9
FINAL1 Pick
JAX-8.533
BAL40.510
FINAL1 Pick
CIN-334
ATL52.517
FINAL
CLE43.522
NO-4.523
FINAL
DAL-4.527
IND51.523
FINAL
DEN-326
CAR44.521
FINAL
DET-6.519
MIA49.59
FINAL
LA-4.520
WAS48.513
FINAL
NYG-319
PHI38.511
FINAL2 Picks
NYJ47.512
KC-9.535
FINAL
HOU-5.544
LAC40.522
FINAL1 Pick
LV51.517
SF-8.538
FINAL
ARI39.53
SEA-8.517
FINAL
GB44.545
NE-327
FINAL1 Pick
TB47.524
CHI-6.527
FINAL
BUF-323
MIN45.56
← Game Model / Game Picks

Game Picks

Week 10, 2026 — every game, including no-plays

How Game Picks Work

The model line

Every game gets a model spread, total, and win probability built from three-part team power ratings (opponent-adjusted efficiency, a roster component where every player carries a point value, and a market-implied anchor), team-specific home field, rest/travel/situational spots, weather, and player-level injury deltas.

Edges and tiers

Cover probabilities come from an empirical margin distribution that preserves key-number mass at 3, 6, 7, 10 and 14 — a 1.5-point gap across 3 is worth far more than one from 8.5 to 10. Expected value is computed at the posted price; Lean / Play / Strong tiers are EV thresholds, and units are fractional-Kelly sized with a per-game exposure cap. Pricing is deliberately conservative: bet probabilities are shrunk toward the market, so most games are "no play".

Locking and grading

Picks may update as lines move during the week; at kickoff they lock and never change. After the final they're graded against the result and the closing line — closing line value (CLV) is the primary health metric, especially early in the model's life.

Reading the board

Model vs market lines are from the home team's perspective (negative = favored). ITT = implied team totals. "Best" is the best available price across captured books for the recommended side.

WAS @ NYG Thu 11/12 7:15 PM CT published 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC Open
Model: NYG -2.4 Total 43.4 Home WP 57.7% ITT NYG 22.9 / WAS 20.5
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread NYG -2.5 -2.4 -2.5 -110 hardrockbet -1.1 no play — -110 hardrockbet
total under 41.5 43.4 41.5 -110 hardrockbet -4.4 no play — -110 hardrockbet
moneyline NYG -2.4 — -130 hardrockbet -1.8 no play — -130 hardrockbet spread is the better expression (-1.1% vs -1.8%)
NE @ DET Sun 11/15 8:30 AM CT published 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC Open
Model: DET -0.3 Total 48.8 Home WP 50.3% ITT DET 24.6 / NE 24.2
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread NE +3.0 0.3 3.0 -115 hardrockbet -1.9 no play — -115 hardrockbet
total under 51.0 48.8 51.0 -105 hardrockbet 1.5 no play — -105 hardrockbet
moneyline DET -0.3 — -155 hardrockbet -2.9 no play — -155 hardrockbet
BUF @ NYJ Sun 11/15 12:00 PM CT published 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC Open
Model: NYJ +4.3 Total 45.4 Home WP 34.7% ITT NYJ 20.6 / BUF 24.8
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread NYJ +8.0 4.3 8.0 -105 hardrockbet 5.6 play 1.5u -105 hardrockbet model/market gap crosses 6, 7
total under 51.0 45.4 51.0 -110 hardrockbet 2.2 lean 0.6u -110 hardrockbet
moneyline NYJ 4.3 — +350 hardrockbet -0.5 no play — +350 hardrockbet spread is the better expression (5.6% vs -0.5%)
CAR @ NO Sun 11/15 12:00 PM CT published 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC Open
Model: NO -0.3 Total 48.7 Home WP 50.3% ITT NO 24.5 / CAR 24.2
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread NO -2.0 -0.3 -2.0 -110 hardrockbet -3.2 no play — -110 hardrockbet moneyline is the better expression (-2.5% vs -3.2%)
total under 48.5 48.7 48.5 -110 hardrockbet -2.9 no play — -110 hardrockbet
moneyline NO -0.3 — -130 hardrockbet -2.5 no play — -130 hardrockbet
HOU @ CLE Sun 11/15 12:00 PM CT published 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC Open
Model: CLE +4.1 Total 42.2 Home WP 35.0% ITT CLE 19.0 / HOU 23.2
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread CLE +4.5 4.1 4.5 -110 hardrockbet -3.4 no play — -110 hardrockbet moneyline is the better expression (-2.6% vs -3.4%)
total under 39.5 42.2 39.5 -105 hardrockbet -2.9 no play — -105 hardrockbet
moneyline CLE 4.1 — +190 hardrockbet -2.6 no play — +190 hardrockbet
JAX @ TEN Sun 11/15 12:00 PM CT published 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC Open
Model: TEN +9.5 Total 40.1 Home WP 21.5% ITT TEN 15.3 / JAX 24.8
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread TEN +10.5 9.5 10.5 -110 hardrockbet -2.4 no play — -110 hardrockbet model/market gap crosses 10
total under 46.5 40.1 46.5 -110 hardrockbet 2.8 lean 0.8u -110 hardrockbet
moneyline TEN 9.5 — +425 hardrockbet -2.8 no play — +425 hardrockbet spread is the better expression (-2.4% vs -2.8%)
KC @ ATL Sun 11/15 12:00 PM CT published 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC Open
Model: ATL +3.8 Total 42.0 Home WP 36.0% ITT ATL 19.1 / KC 22.9
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread ATL +3.0 3.8 3.0 +100 hardrockbet -3.6 no play — +100 hardrockbet moneyline is the better expression (-3.1% vs -3.6%)
total under 45.0 42.0 45.0 -110 hardrockbet 0.0 no play — -110 hardrockbet
moneyline ATL 3.8 — +150 hardrockbet -3.1 no play — +150 hardrockbet
MIA @ IND Sun 11/15 12:00 PM CT published 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC Open
Model: IND -3.3 Total 41.5 Home WP 60.4% ITT IND 22.4 / MIA 19.1
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread MIA +3.0 3.3 3.0 +100 hardrockbet 1.4 no play — +100 hardrockbet
total over 38.5 41.5 38.5 -110 hardrockbet -3.7 no play — -110 hardrockbet
moneyline IND -3.3 — -190 hardrockbet -4.0 no play — -190 hardrockbet
MIN @ GB Sun 11/15 12:00 PM CT published 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC Open
Model: GB -4.9 Total 36.1 Home WP 65.6% ITT GB 20.5 / MIN 15.6
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread MIN +3.5 4.9 3.5 -110 hardrockbet 0.6 no play — -110 hardrockbet
total under 41.5 36.1 41.5 -110 hardrockbet 1.9 no play — -110 hardrockbet
moneyline GB -4.9 — -180 hardrockbet -2.3 no play — -180 hardrockbet
LA @ ARI Sun 11/15 3:05 PM CT published 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC Open
Model: ARI +8.3 Total 45.7 Home WP 24.3% ITT ARI 18.7 / LA 27.0
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread ARI +9.0 8.3 9.0 -105 hardrockbet -0.5 no play — -105 hardrockbet
total over 39.5 45.7 39.5 -110 hardrockbet -0.9 no play — -110 hardrockbet
moneyline ARI 8.3 — +350 hardrockbet -2.9 no play — +350 hardrockbet spread is the better expression (-0.5% vs -2.9%)
SEA @ LV Sun 11/15 3:05 PM CT published 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC Open
Model: LV +5.1 Total 42.0 Home WP 32.4% ITT LV 18.5 / SEA 23.5
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread LV +6.0 5.1 6.0 -105 hardrockbet -1.5 no play — -105 hardrockbet
total under 40.5 42.0 40.5 -105 hardrockbet -1.9 no play — -105 hardrockbet
moneyline LV 5.1 — +230 hardrockbet -3.5 no play — +230 hardrockbet spread is the better expression (-1.5% vs -3.5%)
SF @ DAL Sun 11/15 3:25 PM CT published 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC Open
Model: DAL +3.0 Total 48.7 Home WP 38.6% ITT DAL 22.9 / SF 25.9
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread DAL +4.0 3.0 4.0 -110 hardrockbet -2.1 no play — -110 hardrockbet
total under 56.0 48.7 56.0 -110 hardrockbet 3.6 lean 1.0u -110 hardrockbet
moneyline DAL 3.0 — +175 hardrockbet -2.6 no play — +175 hardrockbet spread is the better expression (-2.1% vs -2.6%)
PIT @ CIN Sun 11/15 7:20 PM CT published 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC Open
Model: CIN -4.2 Total 44.4 Home WP 63.4% ITT CIN 24.3 / PIT 20.1
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread PIT +3.5 4.2 3.5 -115 hardrockbet -0.7 no play — -115 hardrockbet
total under 49.0 44.4 49.0 -105 hardrockbet 3.6 lean 1.0u -105 hardrockbet
moneyline CIN -4.2 — -190 hardrockbet -3.0 no play — -190 hardrockbet
LAC @ BAL Mon 11/16 7:15 PM CT published 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC Open
Model: BAL -6.6 Total 38.0 Home WP 70.4% ITT BAL 22.3 / LAC 15.7
MarketPickModelMarketPriceEV%TierUnitsBestNote
spread LAC +4.5 6.6 4.5 -110 hardrockbet -2.6 no play — -110 hardrockbet model/market gap crosses 6
total under 38.5 38.0 38.5 -110 hardrockbet -2.4 no play — -110 hardrockbet
moneyline BAL -6.6 — -220 hardrockbet -3.3 no play — -220 hardrockbet